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Jenson_Rules

2010 Prediction Thread

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David Coulthard to win. Oh, Sh#t. It can't be his year next season!

In all seriousness - Button to retain his crown, but there will be major scraps between him and Alonso! Yay!

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Good post. Of course, you could have a point with regard to overtaking. In the early 90s, racing was virtually non-existant but fuel and engine technology has moved on somewhat in the last fifteen years. We know that Formula One fuel can only contain compounds that are found in commercial petrol, unlike some of the more exotic blends used in US motor sport but F1 mixtures can be tweaked and engines made to burn leaner. Mansell and Co had to undergo the terrifying experience of having rubber bladders of fuel running alongside their legs! Now, all fuel must be located to the rear of the survival cell. Clearly then, we'll be looking at a longer wheelbase on the cars to accommodate the new 'double' bag which will play hell with the C.O.G. but there are some massive brains out there who have already worked this one out, I am sure.

I doubt that teams will go for longer wheel bases. The 248F1 proved that it is just not really that feasible with all of the stupid Tilke tracks. The lack of almost any medium or high speed corners makes a longer wheel base less attractive. Most corners are either so slow that you need the short wheelbase or corners are so long and fast that in a modern car they drive like straits. I think far more likely is that teams will have to make the back end less like the so-called "coke bottle".

I think teams that opt for the longer car to keep the narrow rear end will not be as competitive as ones that keep the short wheelbase and make the cars less narrow.

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I doubt that teams will go for longer wheel bases. The 248F1 proved that it is just not really that feasible with all of the stupid Tilke tracks. The lack of almost any medium or high speed corners makes a longer wheel base less attractive. Most corners are either so slow that you need the short wheelbase or corners are so long and fast that in a modern car they drive like straits. I think far more likely is that teams will have to make the back end less like the so-called "coke bottle".

I think teams that opt for the longer car to keep the narrow rear end will not be as competitive as ones that keep the short wheelbase and make the cars less narrow.

There will obviously be some chassis lengthening - you can only accommodate that much fuel in a short, narrow car - no matter how innovative the design may be. I'm not crazy about any of the new tracks, to be honest. They may please the eye but the penalties for poor driving have almost been eradicated. The deep gravel traps - which slowed the car down - have been replaced with skating rinks, where the errant driver is hurtled towards the tyre walls at terrifying speed - unbelievably stupid, IMHO. With the singular exception of Felipe, most injuries in the past four years have been to the lower back or limbs. The new stadia are all half empty too! I don't know about you but I cannot afford to go to a GP unless I get a freebie. It is horrendously expensive. I digress. I expect the 2010 cars to look a little dart-like. Although originally commissioned by Max to negate the weight distribution anomalies associated with KERS for the 2010 season, [because the FIA only thought to mention it to Bridgestone in March this year when all the cars were at Jerez], narrower front tyres will arrive too. How does that figure in your calculations?

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Narrower fronts will mean that the optimum weight distribution will naturally be pushed back. that is good news for the beginning of the race, but will multiply the effects of the weight loss due to fuel consumption. I think the principle of changing the tire size to move around the optimum weight distribution makes sense and is one of the few decisions the FIA rules makers have made that make sense. But, like always, the execution of the plan was made haphazardly and just screwed F1 up even more.

If you look at the main problem today it is the aero dependency. And now the FIA has reduced grip at the front, making overtaking even harder because the cars will naturally be more understeery. I would have much rather seen the rears become bigger. This would have still moved the weight distribution back if the change in size was proportional to what it would have been with the fronts were made smaller.

Now having the weight further back is useful in the beginning and of course means that over the entire race the shift of imbalance from back to front wont be as dramatic. It will still be the same percentage of some 14% but you could run at 48-52 and end at 62-38 or you could start at 42-58 and end at 56-44. Now when I wrote my first post I didn't think teams would really starts at 48-52 and just let it flop to an absurd 62-36. The new tires solve some of the problems the teams will face but again because of a lack of grip the teams will just rely more on aero and changing the front wing as the race goes on.

I think the FIA has a fundamental problem when making rules. They see a problem with today's cars. Lets take for example the KERS weight thing and the new tires next year. They see the problem as: The cars have too much of the weight distribution in the front. They say: Lets make the fronts narrower and move the distribution back. Here is the problem though, they only think of the problem they solve and not the problems they cause. If the FIA were to say: The cars' weight distribution needs to be moved back. And then they were to come up with different plans, one being smaller fronts, another larger rears. Then they could look at the problems they would cause by implementing each solution. fronts means less grip overall, more aero dependence, therefore less overtaking. Larger rears mean more overall grip, less aero dependence, maybe more overtaking. Larger rears would also probably mean less rear tire ware from the massive fuel loads because the tires are less likely to slide laterally which is what causes all the wear problems.

of course larger rears have their drawbacks too but if you look at the overall mission of the FIA in the last years: more overtaking, safer cars, all those thing. Every moves the FIA has made presently have looked to me like independently thought of solutions to what they think to be independent problems. But what the FIA has done is just negate half their changes with the other half they have made.

As for your points about the new tracks, I agree 100%, the gravel traps made it so that a mistake was a mistake and you probably did not finish the race. I think the race that really demonstrates this is the 07 Belgium GP. Both Hamilton and Massa during the race went wide during the race at Pouhon. And I mean really wide. Hamilton made it almost to the wall and Massa 3/4 to the wall. With a gravel trap there their races would have been done, but with the tarmac they get a free pass. I think the new tarmac run offs have a horrible flaw in the way drivers see them mentally. The tarmac lets drivers take risks that are counter to good racing and just good road safety, something the FIA is very worried about, and quite rightly so. With tarmac the drivers can push so far past the limit with no consequences. I was always taught that when I'm racing I should start well below my limit and work up to it, that is safe for the others and for me. But now drivers seem to start above the limit and then try and dial it back till they find how fast they can go safely. From experience, it is far harder to dial it back then to dial it up.

And tiket prices, dont get me started. I have already made peace with the fact I will never go see a race in my lifetime. Sorry, I have a tenancy to write way too much I think haha...

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The funny thing is, the 2010 regs clearly do require considerable changes to the current cars. Strange thing is, all the teams say such changes are minimal. At least, no one has said anything in public against them. Maybe, they know something we don't?

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The funny thing is, the 2010 regs clearly do require considerable changes to the current cars. Strange thing is, all the teams say such changes are minimal. At least, no one has said anything in public against them. Maybe, they know something we don't?

A loophole again? eusa_think.gif

Big changes to the chassis, suspensions... But double diffusers are well known already. I read something about normalized front and rear wings for cost cutting and a few other standard parts. Does anybody knows a bit about it? Development won't be easy next year.

No tyre warmers excl.gifthbdn.gif or thbup.gif

Maybe Volkswagen buy Toyota's premises and they win both Championship's a la Brawn.

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Massa to win the Drivers Championship and Ferrari to win the Constructors <_<

Welcom aboard Cornelius, I hope your prediction becomes true.

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Massa to win the Drivers Championship and Ferrari to win the Constructors <_<

Welcome to the forums.

I'm anti-Ferrari, but I'd love for Massa, my favorite driver, to be WDC. He's a lot better than he gets credit for, but I'm not sure if he's a WDC or not. It's so tough to judge him compared to Kimi because I can't figure Kimi out for the life of me. Regardless of whether or not Kimi is more talented than Alonso, I have a feeling Alonso's not going to be as low-key of a teammate as Kimi was. I hope for equal treatment, but I don't expect it giving Alonso's history. Once we know what engines McLaren and Red Bull will have, it will be an easier choice. My gut says it's Vettel.

Ferrari, to me, are the logical choice for the WCC, so I have to agree there. They have a great lineup and I don't see them getting it wrong two years in a row. Then again, I didn't see them getting it wrong in the first place. There car is an utter POS right now, so we'll see what the 2010 chassis is like. If McLaren and Mercedes stay together, I have to imagine their car will be even better than the Ferrari, but their second driver might not be able to score as many points as he should, depending on who it is. If it's Kimi, that won't be an issue. If Macca have Kimi and Merc, I might have to change my mind on the WCC.

There are a lot of unknowns, but I'm pretty confident that it will be damn competitive. The way it should be.

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Well McLaren will hands down win the WCC and WDC, the WDC being Hamilton by a maximum of 10 points to Button, Alonso 3rd, Vettel 4th, Massa 5th, Rosberg 6th, Webber 7th and Heidfeld 8th.

Lets see how much that changes come end of Jan when the testing has begun!!!

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Okay folks. here it is...

post-2537-125931887889_thumb.gif

2010 results and positions throughout season for top 4 teams and their drivers (note - other drivers may come below button, but I'm just including drivers for top 4 teams.

If heidfeld gets the Merc drive I'm putting him above Massa, otherwise Massa will beat the second merc driver.

PS - I'm right - everyone else is wrong, if the results don't exactly match what I've drawn here, then the results are wrong too.

EDITED NEW YEARS EVE, WITH KNOWLEDGE THAT SCHUMI WILL BE AT MERC

post-2537-126226324197_thumb.gif

Merc now beat Ferrari.

Schumi comes in 3rd.

LAST EDIT - DAY BEFORE QUALLY IN BAHRAIN - DOWNGRADING MY EXPECTATIONS OF RED BULL

post-2537-126843763825_thumb.gif

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Okay folks. here it is...

post-2537-125931887889_thumb.gif

2010 results and positions throughout season for top 4 teams and their drivers (note - other drivers may come below button, but I'm just including drivers for top 4 teams.

If heidfeld gets the Merc drive I'm putting him above Massa, otherwise Massa will beat the second merc driver.

PS - I'm right - everyone else is wrong, if the results don't exactly match what I've drawn here, then the results are wrong too.

*sigh*

You got it all wrong. Thus spake Clippo.

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\

And tiket prices, dont get me started. I have already made peace with the fact I will never go see a race in my lifetime. Sorry, I have a tenancy to write way too much I think haha...

Why not make the trip to Aussie then? A grandstand pass for all four days is as cheap as $450AUD.....and airfares are not that expensive from USA to Oz

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WDC : Michael Schumacher

WCC : Ferrari

Race winners : Button, Vettel, Alonso, Schumacher, Hamilton, Webber, Massa, maybe Barrichello and Rosberg too.

Disappointing : Stefan GP if they turn up, Toro Rosso.

Surprising : Closeness of season, Sauber's performance, Michael's good form on return. Virgin and Lotus mixing it with some of the big boys. Occasionally.

Most obvious new paint job : Renault.

Team to moan first : McLaren. Or one of the McLaren drivers.

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World Driving Championship

1. Sebastian Vettel

2. Lewis Hamilton

3. Fernando Alonso

4. Michael Schumacher

5. Felipe Massa

6. Mark Webber

7. Jenson Button

8. Nico Rosberg

9. Robert Kubica

10. Kamui Kobayashi

11. Nick Heidfeld

12. Rubens Barrichello

13. Renault-2

14. Nico H

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World Driving Championship

1. Sebastian Vettel

2. Lewis Hamilton

3. Fernando Alonso

4. Michael Schumacher

5. Felipe Massa

6. Mark Webber

7. Jenson Button

8. Nico Rosberg

9. Robert Kubica

10. Kamui Kobayashi

11. Nick Heidfeld

12. Rubens Barrichello

13. Renault-2

14. Nico H

post-1794-126185580751_thumb.jpg

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Things that will help Button in the 2010 season at McLaren:-

-The narrower front wheel soot his driving style.

-The Mclaren Heats up the tiers very well so that fits in with Button being very soft on his.

-He has just come of the last season with a WDC so he is very confident.

Things that will not help Button in the 2010 season at McLaren:-

-The car and the team is set up around Hamilton and his driving style.

-Hamilton is just a better allround driver, even in a under preforming car.

P.S I have been away so i dont know if this has allready been brought up.

In the end in think Hamilton will come out ahead, i am not going to do my prediction untill the cars have been released :P

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WDC: Hamilton

WCC: McLaren

Race winners: Hamilton, Button, Alonso, Schumacher, Rosberg and Kubica

McLaren has started developing their contender early in 2009 and they've already admitted their 2010 car in basic setup is already faster in the windtunnel than the late 2009 spec that was a dominant force in the last few races. My bet is on Lewis clinching the title with few points over Button. Third will be Alonso with two or three wins, ahead of the Mercedes of Schumacher and Rosberg (1 win each?). Sixth will be Kubica in the Renault, another team that started working on 2010 early last year. I expect a win from the pole in 2010. Massa will be seventh and the disappointment of the season, having been destabilized by Alonso at Ferrari. I also don't expect Red Bull to repeat their 2009 form due to the uncertain situation regarding their engine supplier that has probably frozen the development of the back of the car until december.

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Inspired by Eric's inspired post. :P

WCC

1. Michael Schumacher

2. Sebastian Vettel

3. Fernando Alonso

4. Felipe Massa

5. Lewis Hamilton

6. Jenson Button

7. Mark Webber

8. Robert Kubica

9. Rubens Barrichello

10. Nico Rosberg

11. Nick Heidfeld (At Sauber)

12. Timo Glock

13. Kamui Kobayashi

14. Nico Hulkenberg

15. Lucas Di Grassi

16. Renault number 2

17. Heikki Kovalainen

18. Jarno Trulli

19. Sebastian Buemi

20. Bruno Senna

21. Adrian Sutil

22. Jaime Alguersuari

23. Vitantonio Luizzi

24. Campos Number 2

25. US F1 Number 1

26. US F1 Number 2

WDC

1. Ferrari

2. Red Bull

3. Mercedes

4. McLaren

5. Sauber

6. Renault

7. Williams

8. Force India

9. Toro Rosso

10. Virgin Racing

11. Lotus F1

12. Campos

13. US F1

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World Driving Championship

1. Sebastian Vettel

2. Lewis Hamilton

3. Fernando Alonso

4. Michael Schumacher

5. Felipe Massa...

World Constructors' Championship

1. Scuderia Ferrari

2. Red Bull Racing

3. McLaren-Mercedes

4. Mercedes Grand Prix...

Interesting take, Eric. As the 2009 season wound down it was obvious that all but one of the top teams would experience some significant change/changes in the off-season; the exception being Red Bull. With severe limitations in place for testing there has to be a good deal of weight placed on personnel continuity, and having the same drivers in place following a very successful year should mean a lot come March 2010. It's not beyond the pale to imagine young Mr. Vettel taking home the marbles next year.

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