JHS

Korean Gp

186 posts in this topic

I think it's impossible for him to regain his confidence until he's actually allowed to win a race by Ferrari, but that probably won't happen as long as Fernando's around...

Mathematically, Vettel's still in a chance. Sure, it's a slim chance, but still a possibility. You've seen how quickly the championship has been turning around lately, you can't really right anybody off, even with two races to go. What if Red Bull did back Webber going into Interlagos, yet he suffered another difficult race and Vettel won? That'd possibly put him ahead of Webber in the championship.

I'm only going to tentatively guess that you want Webber to win the title? :P If he's surely that an amazing driver, can't he win it on alone? I mean, aside from Germany, Massa's not exactly been taking that many points off Alonso's rivals, has he?

You don't work strategy on your opposition having a bad day. You work it out on them having a good day.

Edited by HandyNZL

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You don't work strategy on your opposition having a bad day. You work it out on them having a good day.

I think they have to call Brazil as it comes...

Take these 6 situations in the last few laps:

a ) Webber in 3rd, Vettel in 1st, Alonso in 2nd

I'd leave alone - you could tell Vettel to try to back Alonso into Webber, or even drop 2 places or crash and boost Webbers points, but you'd be helping Alonso more.

b ) Webber in 2nd, Vettel in 1st, Alonso in 6th or below

I'd leave alone - now you have 2 good shots at the WDC.

c ) Webber in 2nd, Vettel in 1st, Alonso in 3rd

I'd give Vettel the 'Webber is faster than you' call - in this case you'd want to give Webber the best points haul over Alonso as possible.

d) Alonso 1st, Vettel 1 or 2 places ahead of Webber

Again - then I'd give Vettel the call to help Webber get more points.

e) A DNF for Vettel or Webber

The team orders question is pointless.

f) A DNF for Alonso

Let them race.

To say RedBull should put everything behind Webber is not as clear cut as you would like it to be. It all depends on the situation on the final few laps of Brazil. Only in situations c&d do I agree with you.

To decide anything before then would be premature.

If we had the old system of scoring it would be something like:

Alonso 92.5

Webber 88

Hamilton 84

Vettel 82.5

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So the feck what about the old points system. That is totally irrelevant. That was 2 0 0 flipping 9.

Your a b c d e g h i j k yadda yadda is still looking at it wrong...too many variables....to make informed decisions you have to get rid of as many variables as possible. In this scenario, the minimum amount of variables are to get Webber into P1 and assume Alonso is P2, leaving Vettel in P3 AT BEST.

Hoping that Vettel can do great things at BOTH races and Alonso does BAD things is just not a sure enough run thing.

And if it were Vettel 11 points back, then I'd still be saying the same thing, that Horner is throwing away the championship by saying it's still too early to back one guy over the other. HORNER is being the dork. HORNER is going to lose the WDC for RBR, not Webber, not Vettel.

This is Horner's first tilt at the championship and it shows

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Sorry about all the variables, but you can't just pretend they don't exist and therefore insist on backing Webber all out. They do exist my friend. Sorry, but tough cheese. In most instances you let them race. Only if Vettel's in a position to help Webber and Alonso is 1st, 2nd or 3rd do you ask Vettel to move aside.

If that does happen and Horner doesn't give the order at that point, then I WILL agree with you - he would be stupid. But think about the chances of that exact situation happening. He has to leave his options open.

I just gave the old points system to demonstate that it the points difference looks more extreme than it really is. We've seen plenty of championships won from 10 pts back with two races to go. Vettel is 25pts back (1 race win), so why should it be so impossible this year?

It comes down to this...

[iMPORTANT BIT]

What happens if Horny says now "We're all backing Mark" and then Vettel wins Brazil and Webber has a DNF?

How stupid would he look then? Answer - very stupid.

[/iMPORTANT BIT]

Be patient my padawan. Horner may well back your boy if the situation arises (and indeed he should if necessary), but don't get yourself in a tizzy because he can't say so right now. Wait and see how Brazil pans out then complain if he doesn't make the call when he should.

Edited by snorrisstrags

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There are two explanations for Webber reaction in crash (lack of using breaks).

A ) intentionally drifting to take out some of the competition

B ) being confused and disoriented

A ) is evil

B ) demonstrates poor driving capabilities under stress

Pick whatever you prefer, but neither is good for Webber.

Edited by wapi

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There are two explanations for Webber reaction in crash (lack of using breaks).

A ) intentionally drifting to take out some of the competition

B ) being confused and disoriented

A ) is evil

B ) demonstrates poor driving capabilities under stress

Pick whatever you prefer, but neither is good for Webber.

Hahaha, a driver can't do anything these days can he, without it being the topic of really strange discussion. He made a mistake, the track was very wet, loads of people made mistakes in this race.

They are probably the best drivers in the world, yet they still do occasionally make simple mistakes, as anybody does in life. Just cut them some slack.

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[iMPORTANT BIT]

What happens if Horny says now "We're all backing Mark" and then Vettel wins Brazil and Webber has a DNF?

How stupid would he look then? Answer - very stupid.

[/iMPORTANT BIT]

OK...lets that that scenario....

Vettel gets 25 points, Webber zero......Vettel now has more points than Webber.

Where did Alonso finish? Lets assume he too had as good a race as Vettel (but Vettel won), so he finishes second and picks up his alotted 18 points.

Vet now trails Alonso by 18 points going into the final round, so he needs to win with Alonso, about 8th for him (SV) to win the WDC.....how likely is that scenario? Not really likely.

If Webber no scored at Brazil, and Vettel wins, then you might as well hand the trophy over to Alonso then and there. I'll repeat that...if Webber fails to score, and infact fails to win at Brazil, ALONSO will win his third WDC. I'll bet Eric's life on it...and if I am wrong, you can buy him a ticket to the Taleban infested foothills of Afghanistan. RBR will win the WCC, but thats it...nothing for Vettel, and nothing for Webber...and I think it would be great for F1 in general to have both titles taken by Red Bull, but Horner is going to screw that up by reading posts like yours about the slim minute possibility that Vettel can overcome 26 points in two races (26? I hear you say?....have to have more points than the other guy, don't ya...and you only get 25 for a win).

Good managers would see this, as it is the most plausible outcome...there are no IF's at all....Horner can let them race, and come 4pm next Sunday Brazil local time, he can sit there and say to himself, IF only I'd had some testicles and backed the MOST LIKELY contender for the championship, instead of someone that is mathematically possible to do it IF x+y=z, but only if a/c=b and x-squared = pi, and is Austrian.

How stupid will he look then?

The team leader needs to LEAD....make a DECISION and be STRONG enough to follow through with that decision...perhaps he could learn something from Stefano there. Horner is proving to be nothing but meek, and that in itself makes him look stupid. Not all decisions are going to please everyone all of the time. This is one of those times when you have to make a call that will only favour one half of the garage (technically, but I think the whole team would still be proud if Webber were to win).

RBR will not win the WCC and WDC because Horner lacks the balls to do something to have the greatest chance of winning it.

No one wins anything by thinking "what if this plan doesn't work?"...no, they win by saying "this plan will work. End of story. That's it. We will win". Ask any, any, any athlete, or any successful business man and they will say they got where they were by taking a no surrender attitude and they did it with the confidence that they will not fail. Your scenarios are all about FAILING. You'll never win when you strategy is based around failure.

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Craig - why do you need Horner to say RedBull are backing Webber so openly?

Why do you want such a public statement of intent from him? No other manager would give one in this position because there's simply no need for him to close off his options. After Korea Whitmarsh didn't write Button off (though Button himself did) and he's way further back.

Horner will leave his options open until the last possible moment (last few laps of Brazil or perhaps not even until the last few laps of Aby Dhabi and perhaps not even then).

Wait for Brazil and see what happens - that's all I'm saying.

There are 3 possibilities - no more, no less...

1) There could be no need and/or opportunity to impose any kind of team orders - in which case this discussion is pointless as would be any public statement from Horner on who he's backing.

2) There could be the need and Horner may tell Vettel to move aside - in which case he will have done the right thing.

3) There could be the need and Horner fudges it and it costs Webber points - in which case he will have done the wrong thing.

Why should he choose now? He's far better off with all options open.

Edited by snorrisstrags

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