Math Time...

[tifosi too! 0]

First of all I 'm not that good at math, so a good fellow at ManipeF1 did the job for us!

I thought it would be interesting to have a thread like this one during the race, since, as we all know, anything can happen tomorrow!!

The possibility of Alonso, Vettel and Webber finishing on equal points is also high!

I must admit I never even thought of it as a possibility!

"For the first time in Formula One history four drivers go into the final round of the season with a mathematical chance of claiming the title, with Fernando Alonso, Mark Webber, Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton all separated by just 24 points at the top of the table.

This evening's qualifying session provided a great insight into the relative performance levels of their championship-challenging cars, with Vettel in the Red Bull having just edged Hamilton's McLaren to claim the coveted pole position. Last year's start showed drivers in odd grid positions had the advantage by starting on the gripper racing line, suggesting Alonso and Webber will have the advantage on their closest rivals into the first corner.

Championship-wise, the revised points-scoring system introduced this year has increased the number of possible outcomes, with numerous permutations possible for each driver to win the title. Running in reverse order, below are the outcomes necessary for the contenders to be crowned 2010 World Drivers' Champion tomorrow night in Abu Dhabi.

Lewis Hamilton

Facts: Needs a victory to overhaul the 24-point deficit to Alonso, with the Spaniard finishing outside the points, Webber finishing sixth or lower and Vettel not finishing second.

Chances: May well take the fight to Vettel for victory, but will need more than good luck for Alonso to finish outside the points and for Webber and Vettel to perform badly. Unless the trio take each other out at some point during the race, Hamilton will have to wait until 2011 to win his second title.

Sebastian Vettel

Facts: Only first or second will keep Vettel in contention for the title. Victory will give him the title if Alonso is outside the top four, while second will give Formula One the youngest ever champion if Alonso falls outside the top eight and Webber is outside the top four.

Chances: Having dominated the race last year, victory is his to lose, but the destination of the title is out of his hands if Alonso can stay on-track. It's difficult to see Alonso binning his Ferrari, but there may be another twist to come in the tale of F1 2010.

Mark Webber

Facts: Webber can theoretically win the title if he finishes inside the top five. Victory with Alonso in third or lower will give Webber the title, as will second place with Alonso sixth or lower and Vettel not winning; third with Alonso outside the top six and Vettel not winning; fourth with Alonso outside the top eight and Vettel not winning; fifth with Alonso outside the top nine and Vettel third or lower.

Chances: Was second-favourite coming into this weekend, but qualifying only fifth has seriously dented his chances. Assuming Alonso races competitively Webber will need to overtake Button, Alonso and Hamilton to put himself in a position to claim the crown. Having failed to perform in qualifying there's little evidence to suggest he can pull this one out of the bag. However, anything can happen in Formula One.

Fernando Alonso

Facts: No matter what happens, victory or second place will secure the title for Fernando. He could still theoretically win the title if he fails to finish, but put simply he cannot lose more than 24 points to Hamilton, 14 points to Vettel and eight points to Webber.

Chances: The firm favourite with Webber only fifth on the grid. If he stays out of trouble on the first lap only a surprise thunderstorm will rob him of the title. Having experienced a late-season push for the title on three other occasions he knows how to handle the pressure.

The closest ever finish:

There remains a possibility that Alonso, Webber and Vettel will finish the year on identical points, if Vettel wins, Alonso finishes fifth and Webber finishes second. Such a result would put all three on 256 points, the first time ever that a championship would be won with a zero points advantage.

If that does happen, Vettel would become the champion based on a countback of race results. Webber would finish third due to having just four race wins, but the countback would have to go to the number of fourth place finish to split Alonso and Vettel, with Vettel winning the toss with three to two. Both would have five wins, two second places and three thirds. Ironically

The closest championship finish to date was in 1984 when Niki Lauda beat McLaren team-mate Alain Prost to the title by just half a point."

[Delta 0]

I actually hope it doesn't come down to an equal points finish, it will just lead to years of arguments about who really deserved the title. As long as Alonso's engine holds it's still his to lose for my money.

[F1 FANatic 1]

no it wouldn't. the count back is absolutely fair in a tie and tells you exactly who did better that year

[yurp 0]

I already posted this in the Abu Dhabi thread. But here it is again...

It'll tell you who wins depending on what positions they're in.

Easy. winner.html

[maure 1]

It'll tell you who wins depending on what positions they're in.

Probabilities again? Amusing...

A probability tells you what _could_ happen not what _will_ happen on a hypothetical next single event. And, regarding next single events, probabilities simply list all possible outcomes.

The only reason why probabilities are favored over other forms of prediction (e.g astrology) is because probabilities work out over long periods of time while other forms of prediction don't work out at all or do so by irreproducible chance. Nonetheless, "probability" is just speculation over prediction and not the making of fate.

So, take a dice, paint five faces red and one green, consider the probabilities of which color is most likely to end up facing up, and see your probabilities go down the toilet when you bet everything on the _single_next_throw_...

[yurp 0]

Probabilities again? Amusing...

A probability tells you what _could_ happen not what _will_ happen on a hypothetical next single event. And, regarding next single events, probabilities simply list all possible outcomes.

The only reason why probabilities are favored over other forms of prediction (e.g astrology) is because probabilities work out over long periods of time while other forms of prediction don't work out at all or do so by irreproducible chance. Nonetheless, "probability" is just speculation over prediction and not the making of fate.

So, take a dice, paint five faces red and one green, consider the probabilities of which color is most likely to end up facing up, and see your probabilities go down the toilet when you bet everything on the _single_next_throw_...

:lol:

Bless you for your never-ending desire to act the c*nt.

I see you've been stewing since you fcuked up with your _infinite_ throws bulls##t and the 'nomalus' not 'anomalous' bollocks. That was some funny sh#t.

Anyway - no - this isn't about probabilities - this file just adds the points up and tells you who's got the most - it's this crazy thing called addition - perhaps you've heard of it.

:lol: :lol:

EDIT - too many lols the first time round.

[maure 1]

You've got nothing. Unsurprising.

[mikathegreat2 2]

Nando has a good position in todays race & my fave to take the title! If the quali results stay as final results, Nando will win WDC by 5 points!