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Autumnpuma

Red Bull Will Suffer Most In 2011

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I've just been looking through the 2011 technical changes (craig scarborough's blog post about them) and quite a bit of them are in response to the RB6 (Red Bull's 2010 car). McLaren got hit as did Merc, Williams and Ferrari but to a much lesser degree.

Red Bull will take quite a hit in these areas:

Ban on double and blown diffusers.

Ban on movable splitters.

Front chassis and dash roll structure minimum height.

Limit to shaped rear impact structure.

Of course all the teams to varying degrees will be affected by these, but Red Bull's solution in these areas made their car so damned fast in the twisty bits. I don't know what aero brilliance Newey will pull out of his bag of tricks, but it seems the FIA have taken away all his old tricks. Concepts that have come to fruition with the RB6 were in development at McLaren almost 6 years ago.

The result I see from the rules is that the grid will be much closer. It's wide open as to what large team may dominate, but Red Bull is certainly not going to be the 'de facto' leader in 2011. I see the teams that were fast in 2010 without taking advantage of the aero principles that Red Bull did becoming the leading forces this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Lotus..er..Renault..er.....Toleman taking the lead. Force India and Sauber might shine in certain races and Williams may just poke it's head into a podium ceremony or two.

So my contentious forum pals, what say you?

EDIT: Added blown diffuser, thanks Delta for pointing out my omission.

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Hard to say.

The whole of the RB6 made it so fast...not just one part. McLaren on the other hand, got most of their speed from the (voda)F(one)-duct, but once most of the other teams had a similar device they lost ground, and did not seem to really recover anything from then on..the latter part of the season basically being RBR and Alonso to the fore. Hammy put in some performances above the car, and Button put in performances to the measure of the car (but thats the difference between those tow, isn't it?)

I think McLaren will have a poor 2011....they have the two drivers, but they seem to be losing alot of back room boys over the last few seasons, and what is left of any Newey DNA in any components must be small now. But then, they are a smart team, and could perhaps surprise, but I won't hold my breath. It won't be a dog, but only the KERS is going to set them ahead of anyone else. Also development of the MP4-12C as a GT race car will take away some good brains from the F1 team. However this is a needed thing for 2013 and they lose Mercedes to unveil the bespoke McLaren engine when the new rules come into play, and they have to get the engine architecture sorted in the road/race car before subjecting it to F1.

RBR should be able to evolve the suspension, for this is where their real unseen goodies have been all along...they were the fastest of all the non-double diffuser teams year before last, and had to compromise to get one in. Expect Newey to be licking his lips to be able to evolve his suspension tricks. Plus he is pure genius. He is worth more to a team than any over paid driver. If only Kubica was in one of his cars...he'd drive off into the sunset...

Ferrari will again play catch up to everyone else. They'll have a reasonable car to start with, but as spoken of in another thread, they haven't provided much originality since the days of Brawn, Byrne and co. Expect them to come on from mid season again.

Toleman should have a good car next season...afterall it will be black and gold, and, well, that's all one needs, isn't it?

Williams might be the dark horse...though I've been saying that (hoping that) since the walrus nose in the JPM days. Sam Michaels needs help there...and Patrick Head has no more grand ideas it seems. Today's aero is above him in general. They need some better back room guys...pronto....I hope some of that Maldnonado money goes into recruiting someone three-quarters decent.

Force India will again be nowhere but middle of the pack. Again, they simply don't have the back room boys to carry through anything so remarkable as to set them apart. Essentially, they're about as high as they will ever get.

STR will go backwards, and then be sold by the end of the year.

Team Lotus should be a mover and get a few spots up the leaderboard this season. I expect at least one point scoring race from them. Trulli and Kovi are the best drivers of the new teams, and in Gascogyne they have a capable (if not as good as Newey by a long shot) engineer, and they have had the '11 car under construction since mid season, so here's hoping anyways...

Sauber....can anyone ever see them getting anywhere?

HRT...will be DQ'd from the first half of the season for running a split diffuser thanks to running to '10 car and not having enough money to change even that for '11. Expect them to go from three laps down to 5 or 6...then sold.

Virgin Mother Russia....this should be a year of reckoning for them...they have to prove Nick Wirth is worth it, and that CFD alone can make a car go lickity split. I, for one, believe that CFD and track testing should be enough...Wirth's only downfall at present is the lack of track based data. I'd expect a surge from them mid to late season, especially from Glock once that data starts making sense.

Or it could all be rather pear-shaped for any of the above???

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Don't know Mike, I still expect RedBull to be fast. They've already decided to build on last year's design, the car will be evolutionary. It's safe and they will be adding and tweaking with parts, aerodynamically the car will still be strong and I'm sure Newey is going to come up with another bag of tricks.

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Interesting theory, Mike, but I'm not so sure. As you said, although the regs might suggest they will hurt Red Bull, it will be the same for everyone. So, with everything reset, the best brains will find the best solutions, as they always do. With this in mind, I think Newey will still interpret the rules better than anyone else.

If we see anomolies anywhere, it will be with the loop hole brigade. McLaren and Mercedes might be two to assume Red Bull's mantle.

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Completely disagree.

Red Bull did not have a double diffuser at the start of '09, whilst Brawn did. They were by far the best of the single diffuser teams and really weren't all that far from Brawn's pace.

Now double diffusers are banned, Red Bull will be able to exploit the knowledge they got in the early races of '09 to develop the single diffuser the best.

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I think KERS could be a problem for Red Bull. They don't have real experience with it and in my opinion it was KERS what made 2009 a nightmare season for some big teams. It won't be as bad this season because the cars will be more spec than ever but I don't think they'll lead the pack.

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Completely disagree.

Red Bull did not have a double diffuser at the start of '09, whilst Brawn did. They were by far the best of the single diffuser teams and really weren't all that far from Brawn's pace.

Now double diffusers are banned, Red Bull will be able to exploit the knowledge they got in the early races of '09 to develop the single diffuser the best.

Red Bull were fast mostly due to their raised nose and bendy splitter, not because of the double diffuser.

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Red Bull were fast mostly due to their raised nose and bendy splitter, not because of the double diffuser.

We'll see. Don't underestimate the genious of Adrian Newey...

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If it's not an evolution then I think he'll go too far. Fast and fragile.

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Hard to say.

The whole of the RB6 made it so fast...not just one part. McLaren on the other hand, got most of their speed from the (voda)F(one)-duct, but once most of the other teams had a similar device they lost ground, and did not seem to really recover anything from then on..the latter part of the season basically being RBR and Alonso to the fore. Hammy put in some performances above the car, and Button put in performances to the measure of the car (but thats the difference between those tow, isn't it?)

I would say the difference is sheer bravado over supercool. The crazies sometimes get lucky and the clever sods can be too clever.

I think McLaren will have a poor 2011....they have the two drivers, but they seem to be losing alot of back room boys over the last few seasons, and what is left of any Newey DNA in any components must be small now. But then, they are a smart team, and could perhaps surprise, but I won't hold my breath. It won't be a dog, but only the KERS is going to set them ahead of anyone else. Also development of the MP4-12C as a GT race car will take away some good brains from the F1 team. However this is a needed thing for 2013 and they lose Mercedes to unveil the bespoke McLaren engine when the new rules come into play, and they have to get the engine architecture sorted in the road/race car before subjecting it to F1.

They'll be just fine. Newey was out of the Macca DNA a long time ago.

RBR should be able to evolve the suspension, for this is where their real unseen goodies have been all along...they were the fastest of all the non-double diffuser teams year before last, and had to compromise to get one in. Expect Newey to be licking his lips to be able to evolve his suspension tricks. Plus he is pure genius. He is worth more to a team than any over paid driver. If only Kubica was in one of his cars...he'd drive off into the sunset...

It's entirely possible but there is some inherent 'bad call' DNA in the race management chain and the driver team is unsettled. It needs some 'weeding', IMHO.

Ferrari will again play catch up to everyone else. They'll have a reasonable car to start with, but as spoken of in another thread, they haven't provided much originality since the days of Brawn, Byrne and co. Expect them to come on from mid season again.

Agreed.

Toleman should have a good car next season...afterall it will be black and gold, and, well, that's all one needs, isn't it?

Kubica needs to do better or he'll be the next Johnny Herbert.

Williams might be the dark horse...though I've been saying that (hoping that) since the walrus nose in the JPM days. Sam Michaels needs help there...and Patrick Head has no more grand ideas it seems. Today's aero is above him in general. They need some better back room guys...pronto....I hope some of that Maldnonado money goes into recruiting someone three-quarters decent.

They could have a great season.

Force India will again be nowhere but middle of the pack. Again, they simply don't have the back room boys to carry through anything so remarkable as to set them apart. Essentially, they're about as high as they will ever get.

They don't have anything worth having except Vijay's loot and he ain't parting!

STR will go backwards, and then be sold by the end of the year.

To Hyundai?

Team Lotus should be a mover and get a few spots up the leaderboard this season. I expect at least one point scoring race from them. Trulli and Kovi are the best drivers of the new teams, and in Gascogyne they have a capable (if not as good as Newey by a long shot) engineer, and they have had the '11 car under construction since mid season, so here's hoping anyways...

Dream on....smile.gif

Sauber....can anyone ever see them getting anywhere?

Never discount that man. Kobayashi may calm down and get a podium

HRT...will be DQ'd from the first half of the season for running a split diffuser thanks to running to '10 car and not having enough money to change even that for '11. Expect them to go from three laps down to 5 or 6...then sold.

Not worth a mention.

Virgin Mother Russia....this should be a year of reckoning for them...they have to prove Nick Wirth is worth it, and that CFD alone can make a car go lickity split. I, for one, believe that CFD and track testing should be enough...Wirth's only downfall at present is the lack of track based data. I'd expect a surge from them mid to late season, especially from Glock once that data starts making sense.

Glock needs to jump ship or he'll be in DTM before he knows it.

Or it could all be rather pear-shaped for any of the above???

I use an Appledry.gif

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I keep hearing that the blown diffuser has been banned as well, is that the case?

Exhaust-blown diffusers are banned in 2011, yes.

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As well as some tightening of the loop-holes around the rear of the car that were being used as a way to clean up the airflow and generate a bit more rear downforce. A blown diffuser was only one element in a good rear-end aero package.

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Its a shame to see so many innovations banned. I can understand the F Ducts on safety reasons, but the other things are just the FIA doing their utmost to c**k block innovation and turn F1 into a spec series.

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Its a shame to see so many innovations banned. I can understand the F Ducts on safety reasons, but the other things are just the FIA doing their utmost to c**k block innovation and turn F1 into a spec series.

Here here. Let the designes design. Playing catchup has always been part of F1 until the last decade or so since the new FIA craze of stifling innovation came about.

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I've just been looking through the 2011 technical changes (craig scarborough's blog post about them) and quite a bit of them are in response to the RB6 (Red Bull's 2010 car). McLaren got hit as did Merc, Williams and Ferrari but to a much lesser degree.

Red Bull will take quite a hit in these areas:

Ban on double diffusers.

Ban on movable splitters.

Front chassis and dash roll structure minimum height.

Limit to shaped rear impact structure.

Of course all the teams to varying degrees will be affected by these, but Red Bull's solution in these areas made their car so damned fast in the twisty bits. I don't know what aero brilliance Newey will pull out of his bag of tricks, but it seems the FIA have taken away all his old tricks. Concepts that have come to fruition with the RB6 were in development at McLaren almost 6 years ago.

The result I see from the rules is that the grid will be much closer. It's wide open as to what large team may dominate, but Red Bull is certainly not going to be the 'de facto' leader in 2011. I see the teams that were fast in 2010 without taking advantage of the aero principles that Red Bull did becoming the leading forces this year. I wouldn't be surprised to see Lotus..er..Renault..er.....Toleman taking the lead. Force India and Sauber might shine in certain races and Williams may just poke it's head into a podium ceremony or two.

So my contentious forum pals, what say you?

You wish.

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As well as some tightening of the loop-holes around the rear of the car that were being used as a way to clean up the airflow and generate a bit more rear downforce. A blown diffuser was only one element in a good rear-end aero package.

I am obliged for the clarification.......

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You wish.

Ha! Actually I don't have a team preference since Super Aguri left the sport.

So I take it that you disagree with me. Why do you think the loss of their aero advantage will still see them with the fastest car?

I am obliged for the clarification.......

Not really clarifying, Sean, what you said stands on it's own. :) I was just giving Delta some additional info because I think he may have been focusing too much on the over-hyped blown diffuser.

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The whole of the RB6 made it so fast...not just one part.

And it's pretty much the important bits on that 'whole car' that will be removed for '11. The RB6 wasn't the quickest in a straight line, it was the quickest in the medium and fast corners due to overall superior downforce. The nose generated downforce by raising the chassis above the wheels giving it a pocket of air right in front of the splitter and the splitter allowed the nose to dip down more than the other cars. The blown diffuser kept the rear snug to the ground. These will be gone in 2011. So I ask you, why are you convinced they will be faster than the rest?

RBR should be able to evolve the suspension, for this is where their real unseen goodies have been all along...they were the fastest of all the non-double diffuser teams year before last, and had to compromise to get one in. Expect Newey to be licking his lips to be able to evolve his suspension tricks. Plus he is pure genius. He is worth more to a team than any over paid driver. If only Kubica was in one of his cars...he'd drive off into the sunset...

The only suspension 'trick' they had was outlawed after the first handful of races, that being a system that adjusted the ride height from qualy to the race. How can they evolve on something that was banned? You assume the engineers standing at the back of the RB6 are hiding a suspension system, but what system was it? You must have some idea to be touting it? Aside from suspension geometry, there's really very little or revolutionary a team can do with the suspension without it being banned.

If we see anomolies anywhere, it will be with the loop hole brigade. McLaren and Mercedes might be two to assume Red Bull's mantle.

I dunno. Last year Newey took advantage of loop-holes as well. They ran a floppy splitter that was designed to pass the mandated tests but became floppy at higher loads.

Completely disagree.

Red Bull did not have a double diffuser at the start of '09, whilst Brawn did. They were by far the best of the single diffuser teams and really weren't all that far from Brawn's pace.

Now double diffusers are banned, Red Bull will be able to exploit the knowledge they got in the early races of '09 to develop the single diffuser the best.

Its the total package that's being hit, not just the diffuser. I might agree with you if the FIA only banned the double diffuser. As it stands, other teams have progressed in areas that Red Bull have not because the RB6 was designed around at least 3 areas of the car that are banned for '11.

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It can only be the smallest thing that can give a car a big advantage though. Who knows? They might have quite a complexed single diffuser which gives them a big advantage again.

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I guess what I'm asking for is a reason why certain people are convinced that Newey will still make the fast car that they had in 2010. What exactly are you reasons for thinking this? Past record? Brawn has a better record in recent history...

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Correct me if I'm wrong here, but Ross Brawn doesn't design the cars does he? I thought he was just team manager/strategist.

And yes, past form. I'd be very suprised if Newey produced a dog after two seasons of producing the best car on the grid. Unless he gets a knock to the head and forgets how to design race winning cars that is...

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And it's pretty much the important bits on that 'whole car' that will be removed for '11. The RB6 wasn't the quickest in a straight line, it was the quickest in the medium and fast corners due to overall superior downforce. The nose generated downforce by raising the chassis above the wheels giving it a pocket of air right in front of the splitter and the splitter allowed the nose to dip down more than the other cars. The blown diffuser kept the rear snug to the ground. These will be gone in 2011. So I ask you, why are you convinced they will be faster than the rest?

The only suspension 'trick' they had was outlawed after the first handful of races, that being a system that adjusted the ride height from qualy to the race. How can they evolve on something that was banned? You assume the engineers standing at the back of the RB6 are hiding a suspension system, but what system was it? You must have some idea to be touting it? Aside from suspension geometry, there's really very little or revolutionary a team can do with the suspension without it being banned.

I dunno. Last year Newey took advantage of loop-holes as well. They ran a floppy splitter that was designed to pass the mandated tests but became floppy at higher loads.

Its the total package that's being hit, not just the diffuser. I might agree with you if the FIA only banned the double diffuser. As it stands, other teams have progressed in areas that Red Bull have not because the RB6 was designed around at least 3 areas of the car that are banned for '11.

Two words...names actually...Adrian Newey.

He is the reason I know that the RB7 will be the fastest one out there. The suspension i refer to is the pull rod suspension that they had to ditch to get a split diffuser in. Everyone else is using the commonly accepted better type, being push rod...but Newey wouldn't put pull rod in for no reason...he's too good for that. It doesn't need to be revolutionary...just provide better mechanical grip, which will allow lower aero settings.

The nose thing is about creating downforce, yes, but it's to get a wedge shape under the car so that there is a bigger gap at the front, and a smaller "slot" at the rear, and thus the air has to move faster to get out from underneath and creates negative, sucking, pressure. The splitter is designed to push air under the car, not used as an additional front "wing" so to speak, so that the maximum amount of air is rammed under the car and out the diffuser.

RB5 was quick. Quickest of all the non double diffuser gang. RB7 is going to go back to RB5, so they will be quick.

Newey is the man.

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RB5 was quick. Quickest of all the non double diffuser gang. RB7 is going to go back to RB5, so they will be quick.

Exactly my point. Great minds think alike!

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