Future F1 Calendar

[Massa 0]

Catalunya and Valencia will alternate starting next year. Race is in Barcelona for 2013, Valencia for 2014. Third alternating race now, with Spa/Paul Ricard official and Hockenheim/Nüburgring as has been for years. This opens the door for New Jersey to join, assuming it's ready. The 2014 Russian Grand Prix will probably find its place with a Korean cancelation. Any other speculative races (Argentina, South Africa, second in India, etc). would come at the expense of something else (I know they threaten Australia every year, but they never act on it).

[Massa 0]

Construction in New Jersey is ahead of construction in Austin.

Which makes me wonder about why Ecclestone said Jersey may have to wait until 2014.

I have two theories:

1) Argentina offered Ecclestone a better deal. After all, Jersey doesn't get the government funding to make too outlandish of an offer, whereas the Argentine government probably can. Plus, if the NJ crew were intelligent, they would have known they can get it at a discount from Ecclestone because he is just so dead set on having a race in NYC Metro. Ecclestone may not have enough space on the calendar to have both Argentina and New Jersey...

2) With the lawsuits etc. in Elroy, Tavo Hellmund might have something to do with this. Consider that Ecclestone wanted Hellmund in charge of ruining the Jersey race, but Hellmund instead convinced Ecclestone to back his Texan dream. Now, Hellmund may be ousted from the project entirely, as the management struggles continue and all that. Is Ecclestone trying to stir up false rumors around New Jersey as a way to get his friend Hellmund in on that project, seemingly more stable than Elroy? "I'll stop talking if you take on Tavo" or something like that, or trying to generate a lack of confidence around partners for the project such that the race needs to be taken over by Ecclestone/Hellmund.

Those are both completely speculative theories. Just something I thought about today.

[Massa 0]

Austin round-up:

Overview-ish thing: Race day general admission is $287. What a waste of money. Sit on a hill for 90 minutes at $287. Also, there will only be on-site parking for 17,000. 17,000! Are you kidding me? What a joke, what an absolute joke this event is. This event must be planned by people who aren't from the United States. There isn't public transporation in the U.S. It doesn't exist. It's awful where it does. No one is taking a bus to get to this race, sorry. People who have the money to buy these seats aren't taking buses. That's not how it works in the U.S. I'm not saying that's right, but it's just how it is. 17,000 parking spaces. You're out of your mind. An auto race with 17,000 parking spaces. They aren't even trying. Let's sell F1 in America by making you sit on a bus for a few hours to go there and sit on a mound.

The track is hot a political topic

Latest on the lawsuit

Paul Mitchell wants to make it a drag racing facility and it may as well be that and only that.

[JHS18 0]

Overview-ish thing: Race day general admission is $287. What a waste of money. Sit on a hill for 90 minutes at $287. Also, there will only be on-site parking for 17,000. 17,000! Are you kidding me? What a joke, what an absolute joke this event is. This event must be planned by people who aren't from the United States. There isn't public transporation in the U.S. It doesn't exist. It's awful where it does. No one is taking a bus to get to this race, sorry. People who have the money to buy these seats aren't taking buses. That's not how it works in the U.S. I'm not saying that's right, but it's just how it is. 17,000 parking spaces. You're out of your mind. An auto race with 17,000 parking spaces. They aren't even trying. Let's sell F1 in America by making you sit on a bus for a few hours to go there and sit on a mound.

Said all along Formula One is overpriced...

They really wouldn't be helping Formula One's historically dodgy relationship in the States with that. Who in their right mind is going to pay that sort of money for an obscure sporting event that hardly ever makes the main news in the country?

Bodes well...

[Massa 0]

Well, from the other perspective:

I'm not sure attendance is what they're looking for. Indianapolis was the best-attended Grand Prix on the calendar from 2000 to 2004. To be fair, it also had over twice the seating capacity of any other track, but the point is, they were able to get 130,000 people there on race day. The event didn't do anything to improve American fan interest in F1. So why would they even try to get people to go? It doesn't matter if people go. The Austin government is subsidizing it. The money is in TV contracts (a primetime slot over in Europe, the feeling that it's a "big event" because it's in "America" and at this new massive circuit), not ticket revenues. It isn't about establishing F1 in the United States, it never was, it doesn't have to be.

[Massa 0]

They're paving parts of the track in Elroy.

https://twitter.com/circuitamericas/status/205419875919855616/photo/1/large

I still think this event will be a complete failure. I hate to see them get so far if it's not going to work...and I don't know how they make it work...but hey, their money and their problem, not mine.

[Massa 0]

Austin update: It's being built and it's happening.

I was wrong. Very, very wrong.

[HandyNZL 1]

Never admit that....

[JHS18 0]

Ah, building the track's the easy bit. Getting a crowd and pleasing Bernie is the more challenging area.

Look at Korea. Was just about built on time, but looks like a track that is very likely to suddenly disappear off the calendar for 2013.

[HandyNZL 1]

And Korea is kind of OK. At least it is in simulation land.

[Massa 0]

Paving is progressing in real life at the Circuit of the Americas in Elroy, TX.

In fake life, here's F1 2012's take on what the track will be like.

I don't see much of anything all that special outside of the first corner being a good place to have a really crazy start to the race (and probably the end of a DRS zone). It feels like a Tilke track. Which isn't a bad thing, just an overdone thing.

It looks like it will be a better track than Indianapolis was, but a much worse event. IMS did a great job with the USGP as an event and I can't see them doing that in Elroy, personally.

[Massa 0]

There is no chance this is going to happen. None at all. But I hope it does.

http://joesaward.wor...k-takes-a-peek/

Montréal, New Jersey, Texas, Long Beach, Mexico City, Argentina, and Brazil. All in decent time zones for me. Long Beach in the evening. Perfect. I don't care if the tracks are good or not, that would be a dream.

How credible is Saward? I see him a lot but never knew. I have a hard time trusting a Wordpress, no matter who authors it, for rumors.

Obvious issues: course is too short, city is broke. Other than that, woo, yeah, great, fun.

[Massa 0]

Long way to go on any LBGP return for F1, but I was bored and since the rumor is out there, I played around in Google Earth this morning. If you replicate my map, you can take a tour of the path on street view (Google plays it for you) and see what it looks like. The track needs to be longer for F1, but I wanted to preserve as much as possible. Red means it's the existing track, blue is my addition, and green is the existing track that wouldn't be used. This is all pointless but designing street circuits that will never be used is fun.

[JHS18 0]

F1 sure does have a love affair with America at the moment, doesn't it?

Hearing of all these races it makes me laugh at the talk of people in paddock saying how there's too many races on the calendar and they're wanting to cut back...at the moment with all this talk of new races here, there and everywhere it hardly looks like that is happening.

I know not every place that has mentioned will definitely host a race (in fact it is pretty likely some will fail) but I just hope that all this new influx of races doesn't mean bad news for the older races. I know F1 needs to move on and modernise, but at the same time it cannot forget its roots. I just feel underwhelmed by the new generation of circuits - the drivers say themselves they aren't a challenge any more, particularly when they feature such massive boring run off zones. Or if it isn't that, it is some random street circuit where overtaking is slim to nil.

F1 needs places like Spa and Monza for example. Without a doubt, the sport would survive if they ever did drop off the calendar, but I think it'd be much worse without them.

[Massa 0]

There's some economic recovery in the U.S. Europe's ****ed six ways to Sunday. Enough promoters and governments have an interest in it, and if they can believe it makes financial sense (whether or not it actually does), they will. I think a lot of it has to do with IndyCar being really unstable and there still being a desire from cities to host races. F1 is "cool" and "edgy" and "young" and "different" and "exciting" and a "spectacle." So there's interest and F1 will go where there's interest and money. Right now, Long Beach still needs money and there have been proposed F1 projects here for years (Las Vegas three times since 1998, various ones in New York, Jersey City, etc).

I can see F1 going to an alternating calendar like with Spain/Germany/etc. I don't think they want to get away from old races, but they may have to compromise to accomodate new ones.

I worry about having too many races in the U.S., though. The Austin race was relying heavily on Mexican fans in their projected attendance; a race in Mexico City diminishes that, and so does one in Long Beach, where Mexican fans and sponsors (Tecate) have always had a big presence. These races are really expensive. The cheapest seat in Austin is $299. Then you have travel. There are only 600,000 of us watching a normal race (1,300,000 when it's on FOX), so you have a small market, with high prices, and you start having too many events...I'd be waiting. I'd want to see how Austin and New Jersey go first. I think Austin could have success in the first year before fading out. New Jersey may have more longevity given it's proximity to New York. I think Long Beach would be a successful event because it's already established, but having Long Beach may take away from Austin and having a permanent course for one of the races is kind of cool, so I'd want to do what I could to help that race be successful.

Furthermore, I hope the Argentina race happens. I like the proposed track, honestly.

It definitely gets interesting if you have another U.S. race, Argentina, Mexico, and South Africa trying to get on-board, with Russia already confirmed for 2014. I'm fine with losing venues if we're creating venues with longevity; hit-and-runs like Turkey aren't going to be worth losing good tracks. As important as the show is, the challenge of a good track is pretty special, too.

[freaky2 1]

Funny how it's "young" and "cool", the exact opposite of what we perceive in Europe. Unless you were referring to last race's podium, in which case it might be getting younger XD

[Massa 0]

I guess it's because we have NASCAR and Indy for perspective. F1's demographics are a lot more attractive to certain brands, and the drivers are a lot younger. F1 drivers give off a vibe that they are absolute stars, and that these races are really important. NASCAR and Indy comes across as more of a show and everyone's a lot less serious. They just appeal to largely different audiences, and there are brands that have target buyers a lot more in line with F1's U.S. viewers.

From the city's perspective, you can't run NASCAR in the streets, and F1 gives the city more reputation than IndyCar. "We brought the best in the world to our little town" and all that, whereas Indy races don't really bring much of anything. Plus, the city has a higher chance of people traveling for F1 than for Indy, since there are Indy races in a lot of cities in the U.S., whereas with just two Grands Prix, people have to travel. On top of that, you get international travel, like they did at Indianapolis which was very well-attended, especially by Latin American fans. Montoya had huge support. The economic impact looks better, even if it isn't since you have a higher sanctioning fee, for F1 than Indy.

[JHS18 0]

Funny how it's "young" and "cool", the exact opposite of what we perceive in Europe. Unless you were referring to last race's podium, in which case it might be getting younger XD

I wouldn't say it is "uncool"...it certainly still attracts a lot of glamour to most races, particularly Monaco. But I guess that is to be expected really.

It is funny you mention Turkey - a lot of drivers and fans actually believe that was Tilke's best track with the elevation changes and turn 8. Pity it flopped in terms of spectators. But then you could argue whether it was promoted well enough, whether tickets were too expensive for most locals, etc.

But you make valid points. Don't you think that the more F1 races in America, the more likely it is to build American interest? With Texas, New Jersey, Long Beach - if they got promoted correctly and the press coverage of those events started making headlines - do you think it'd encourage more people to find out what F1 is about? If F1 really is seen as "new" and "different" to Indycar/NASCAR and everything else you mentioned, that could help those events.

Then you just need a home driver/team.

[Massa 0]

You shouldn't have asked because you are getting more than you are ever going to be able to finish reading.

SparkNotes: I don't know.

I didn't mean Turkey was a bad track; it was fine. I meant that just as it's bad to lose a great track to bad one (like Spa alternative with Paul Ricard, or like losing a race for Valencia would be), it's also bad to lose a great event to one that isn't even going to be developed (like Turkey, which just fell flat, or Korea). I'm fine with new tracks and new markets, but they have to work to make these new tracks and new markets some other generation's Spa and Monza and Monaco. You want people thirty years from now saying "man, I can't wait for the race in Singapore, all the masters have won there" and not people two years from now saying "remember that one time they ran at Austin and then never went back? What a waste of money." The events are just as important as the circuits they are run on, though, not by coincidence, the best events are often the ones on the most storied tracks. The point, anyway, is that Spa was a new track once and Monza was a new track once and Silverstone was a new track once, and someone had to make those events what they are. There was no reason that a track like Istanbul Park couldn't have been a staple had it been better promoted or better invested in or better cared for or built in a different market or whatever. I don't want to see them doing quick hits in the U.S. and then bailing out. After Watkins Glen, that's all we've gotten from F1: a new street circuit that disappears in a few years. Or Indy, which was actually worse than a street circuit.

So does it help F1 here? It's hard to figure, James. TV viewership is 600,000 on SPEED (that's at 5 AM on the West coast and 8 AM on the East coast). It's 1,300,000 on FOX (11 AM on the West coast and 2 PM on the East coast).

Where do those 700,000 viewers go?

Are they:

1) People who do not received SPEED but would watch if they did? Not likely. About 69% of people with televisions receive SPEED. So having over 50% of your viewers ditch you after the FOX stint doesn't seem to be a case of people not having SPEED. Some, certainly, but all of them, the math doesn't work out.

2) Not awake at those times? It's possible. But few F1 fans in the U.S. are "casual." Most are very devoted to the sport, and conceivably, would be waking up or watching the re-air on SPEED in the afternoon. There are not 700,000 people watching the re-air, nowhere close.

3) People who are so used to putting FOX on in a Sunday afternoon to see NASCAR that they did it out of habit and confusion, saw F1, and stuck with it? That's what FOX hopes by putting the F1 race on the weekend immediately after NASCAR coverage stops. But I don't think there are many who would stay on that channel.

4) Are they people sit on their couch and watch FOX 24/7? Those people exist. But there aren't 700,000 of them.

So what does it come down to?

Could be exposure. People check to see what's on FOX. Formula One racing sounds interesting. Why's that on FOX? It must be important. They watch it. Maybe they are confused. "Oh, is that the Indy 500? Is that Daytona?" I mean a race on network has to be a big deal. Only enthusiasts check out SPEED. People may not even know that there are more than four F1 races in the U.S. since they don't even know they have SPEED.

It's hard to figure. More U.S. races will bring more people to F1 for those races. But will they stick around? The TV viewers don't stick around after all the exposure during Canada and the subsequent three on FOX. And does too many U.S. races over-saturate? The same people aren't spending the money to go to all three, and a street race will always attract generic people to see the event, Long Beach is a party, but what kind of casual fan can go when ticket prices are $300 per weekend? And does having people go to the street race hurt the new facility in Texas we invested in? Does Texas become another Istanbul, a decent design, gone in a few years? If people have options, and the prices dictate they're only going to choose one, you might be really hurting other events.

Now I don't think Long Beach is anywhere close to being real. There's no evidence that Chris Pook wants to do that or that Chris Pook was in Montréal because of that. Plenty of people who aren't planning a new Grand Prix go to Montréal. Tony George was in Malaysia with Zak Brown in 2009 or so. I'm still waiting for Tony's next venture into F1.

But as great of an event as Long Beach is, I think you need to give Texas a chance to work out. They made it happen against the odds and having a permanent facility for F1 in the U.S. is a big freaking deal. Don't let it slip away. Do what you can to protect that event and see what it can do for the future of F1 here. New Jersey is far enough away that you can support those two. Long Beach is far from Texas, too, but a good percentage of their ticket sales came from Californians who may opt for the closer LBGP if they had the option, and from Mexicans, who may get their own race, or may be closer to Long Beach.

[Massa 0]

And now I'm really confused.

I found some TV numbers.

The most-watched F1 race in the U.S. for 2011? The German Grand Prix on FOX. It was aired at 2 PM rather than live. 1,406,000 viewers. The 2010 version, aired at noon rather than live, got 802,000 viewers.

Why was there such a huge jump in viewership between 2010 and 2011? Were people excited about F1 once Austin was announced? Was the coverage better promoted? Do Americans really like the Nürburgring track and hate Hockenheim?

I will never understand F1 viewership in the U.S. Now put a Grand Prix at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro since the IndyCar race fell through and call it a day. There's a nice empty parking lot to play with across the road.

[JHS18 0]

Maybe they heard about the Ferrari team orders scandal that happened in 2010 and wondered if it'd happen in Germany again.

[Massa 0]

I guess it could have been the time change by two hours. Better time in the West Coast, less interference with Church attendance in the other time zones.

A few other points about F1 in the USA for you guys to read/skim/scroll past:

Profile vs. Popularity

Would have three races raise F1's profile in the USA? Yes.

But don't confuse profile with popularity. Do most Americans know who Kim Kardashian is? Yes. Do they watch her TV show? No.

Having F1 races might make F1 trendy and cool, but does that turn into TV viewership and race attendance? No.

There are people who are huge Danica Patrick fans. It's so cool that a woman can race against men, I wish other sports did that, go Danica! Did any of them actually watch Indy races? No way. Danica was one of the most visible athletes in the USA. IndyCar might just be the most invisible major sport in the country.

An F1 race might attract "wow, F1 is so cool, I love Sebastian Vettel!" fans who don't actually watch races or spend money. Count the number of "huge New York Yankees" or "diehard New England Patriots" fans who watch every game, attend games, follow news, etc. Most self-proclaimed big fans are only watching parts of important playoff games and might go to one game per year...to sit there texting their friends "I'm at the game!!!"

How you take those people and turn them into fans and into money is a huge task for selling F1 here.

If you watched TV in the USA long enough, you'd think Basketball Wives and other garbage like that was all we care about. Yet more people watch F1 than a show like that. Profile ≠ popularity.

18-34s

$159 for general admission? $299-499 for a grandstand seat? Good luck getting the 18-34 demographic, who are only, oh, I don't know, the targets of the vast majority of products and services in the world? These are people who are projected to continually earn more income, these are impressionable people who are more likely to try new things, these are people with entire lives ahead of them to be loyal to your brand.

But they're not quite rich enough to attend your Grand Prix. How do you get them there?

Competition

Attending live sporting events is expensive. Most people budget for sporting events well in advance, and can only attend just so many. Not to even get into other things like concerts that compete against sporting events.

Austin's up against college football. There's definitely more of a window there. Big picture? They're running ALMS, V8 Supercars, potentially MotoGP, potentially IndyCar, and potentially a NASCAR series. They may also add drag racing. People can't afford to go to all of those, and locals may choose to the cheaper events on that calendar. Is the track doing too much?

New Jersey? Now we have big issues. In the area: the New York Jets, the New York Giants, the Super Bowl a few months after the first race, the New York Rangers, the New York Islanders, the New Jersey Devils, the New York Knicks, the Brookyln Nets, the New York Yankees, the New York Mets, the New York Red Bulls, and probably a whole lot of other teams that I can't remember off the top of my head.

Are all of those in direct competition with the race? No. Yankees and Mets will be playing, Red Bulls will be playing, the Rangers/Islanders/Devils could be playing around that time if they are in the Stanley Cup Final, and the Knicks/Nets could be playing around that time if they are in the NBA Final.

But timing doesn't matter. Those events are all part of an annual budget for the normal person who can just attend one or two events in a year.

Now F1 has appeal, and some people are going to attend for free on top of buildings and on balconies and whatever. F1 is a big deal. It's a once a year event, it's new, it's big. So that's cool, let's go to that, it's fun, exciting, different, a big party, more people will be there than any other sporting event in the area, great!

But it's also a lot more expensive than attending any of the other things you can attend during the year. And it's not as social. You have to wear ear protection and you can't talk to your friends during it, like many casual American sports-goers do at baseball games or things of that nature.

And many of those other events are longer in length, making the cost per hour better.

And all of those other events have a "home team" to support, which is half the fun if you aren't really in love with the game being played (as someone new to F1 who doesn't understand it all would feel).

And all of those can be watched on TV, which you're already paying for whether you watch the events or not, so you may as well use it. Have your friends over, have some food and drinks, etc.

Now if they watch the F1 on TV, we have a winner there, but if they don't attend and don't watch, problem.

How do you get people to find value in attending this race? It's easier in Austin than in New York Metro, but still tough.

Attention Span

Your attention span has probably run out by this part of the post, if you even tried to read it. The casual American viewer's attention span expired long ago.

F1 can be new and exciting. A day later we forget.

Back to Danica. We all cared about Danica for a few hours one Sunday in 2005. We never really cared again, at least not enough to watch any of her future races. And no, it wasn't because she didn't win. If she had won, we would have said, "wow, cool, she won" and moved on because she's already won, why do we need to see her try to win again?

We can all care about Austin and New Jersey and Long Beach and whatever else they tell us to care about. But how soon until we move on?

How do you keep their interest if you can get it to begin with?

[Massa 0]

Damn that's long. Will they please just give me some meaningless job with one of the USGPs already?

[JHS18 0]

I say you'd be in a perfect position to market one of these races for yourself.

[Massa 0]

Some footage from Vettel's time in New Jersey. Not much audio, and a lot of him and Coulthard being stupid, and the lap isn't continuous (the footage jumps from parts of the circuit all over the place). Still a good idea of some parts of the track...

...which looks exactly the way it looked in the Google Earth Street View screencaps I dumped here months and months ago.

Not sure what to think of the track. I think if it weren't close-ish to home (I grew up about 45 miles from there) I'd probably be unimpressed. But it's Jersey so wooo Jersey greatest track ever!