Replacing Massa

[AleHop 0]

People who know a bit about F1 rated Robert highly and with good reason, in my opinion.

Not all judgements should be based on results, when there are differences in car performance.

Therefore comparing Kubica to Maldonado is like comparing a handbag with a Russian wedding, and just as stupid.

+1

[yurp 0]

After today's race Alonso is leading the WDC by 20 pts.

Ferrari are sitting 4th in the WCC behind RB, Macca and Renault (who have yet to win a race).

This should not be the case.

Ferrari need a new number 2.

Pronto.

[ferrari need new driver 0]

Ferrari should replace massa asap. Fair enough he has had bad luck, but so do a lot of other drivers. The fact is, he is 100 points behind his team after only 8 races. When their have been 7 different winners. So his team mate is not running away with the championship, but has scored consistantly. Look at Mark webber who's sitting 2nd in the championship. I never understand the negatively that goes to mark webber. Hes a driver without luck but is consistantly scoring points. Red bull are leading the constructors championship and 2nd and 4th in individual standings. Thats a team effort. Ferrari fans aren't happy and with good reason. They are a big team, with plenty of drivers to pick from and they give massa another year. Don't understand it. Ferrari will resign massa for 2013.

[Rainmaster 7]

Short of him winning every remaining race, I'd be amazed if Ferrari kept Massa for another year.

[Massa 0]

Hey look, that makes 7,000 posts for George. Joke about calories or kilograms or something.

I think the game plan for Ferrari is to keep the door open for 2014. I suspect Ferrari want Vettel for 2014, but are fine with Pérez in 2014 if they can't sign Vettel (and I don't think they can, personally). Operating on that assumption (and it could be wrong of course), they won't promote Pérez for 2013. If you promote Pérez, you have the options of:

1. Forfeit the chance to try for Vettel in 2014.

2. Try for Vettel, land him, and burn the bridge with Pérez, thus releasing him out into the world, where he may sign with Red Bull to replace Vettel and end up beating you in the championship.

3. Try and fail anyway.

4. To negate all that, you could promote Pérez in 2013, have it all go wrong, and ???

But if you don't promote Pérez, you have, for 2014:

1. Try for Vettel. If you succeed, you get Vettel, and retain Pérez to replace Alonso when he moves on, having the future secured long-term with Vettel and Pérez.

2. Try for Vettel. If you fail, you have Pérez and Alonso which is a great pairing as it is anyway.

It seems to me that the not promoting Pérez yet plan has a lot less risk if Ferrari really do want Vettel.

So what does that mean for 2013? You want someone who will take a one-year deal. That leaves you with:

1. Felipe Massa for another year with an option to be a reserve/road car tester/brand ambassador/Le Mans driver/whatever else you want that isn't an F1 racing driver should he not find a 2014 ride after. Downside: He really isn't serviceable anymore, even as a backup. And he costs a lot. It's a bad call and I love the guy.

2. Michael Schumacher on a one-year deal with some sort of plan to move him into management within the team afterward. He proved today he can still do just fine, and I'm sure the storybook ending of retiring with Ferrari crosses everyone's minds. Downside: He isn't ageless, and "his" Ferrari isn't there anymore. It's the team in name, but not in personnel. It's also baseless right now.

3. Heikki Kovalainen on a one-year-deal for him to try to prove he deserves something better than Caterham for the future. He's steady and he wasn't as bad at McLaren as people say he was. He won a freaking race, back when winning a race was something only three guys could do in an entire season. I know it took some luck and it was a weird one, but hey, a win is a win. Pretty sure he and Alonso get along well, too, if I'm thinking of the right guy. Downside: I honestly can't see one other than, again, this is baseless speculation on my part.

You do have the Webber rumors. If he'd take a one-year deal with Ferrari, sure, do it, but I suspect he's sticking around at Red Bull since neither can do better than each other.

I don't think they retain Massa. But there options for 2013 are limited...

UNLESS they do want to promote Pérez now, which they like to tell the press they don't want to do, but what are they going to tell the press? But doing that, as highlighted, screws up any plans for Vettel...but who says they actually have plans for Vettel other than a lot of the usual tabloid "well every champion has to drive for Ferrari" stuff that isn't really true.

[Massa 0]

That needs a SparkNotes. Here it is: I don't run an F1 team and I never could GO FELIPE.

[ferrari need new driver 0]

Don't see why ferrari won't replace Massa with a test driver at the moment. He's not adding much to the team. I would replace him in the next two races. Does anyone know how many points does massa need to stay with ferrari for 2013. Surely there would be an unroar if he was re signed for 2013. The two ex toro rosso drivers would be a good choice. Jamie would do an ok job.

[Massa 0]

Welcome to the forums, first off, since I forgot to mention it earlier.

I don't think that it's as clear cut as "if Massa scores X points, he stays, if not, he goes." In the simplest terms, they will essentially evaluate his performances given the circumstances and project that to their expected performance from him in 2013, which they will then compare to the expected performance of other free agents for 2013, all of whom (Massa included) will then be evaluated according to their contract cost in regards to the results they are expected to achieve, and evaluated by the length of contract they wish to sign, depending on what Ferrari's long-term objectives are.

They will also have to get driver choices approved by major sponsors; it's less of an issue in F1 because sponsors are tied to the team and the team's brand, rather than the individual like in other racing, but I'm sure they still get a say of preferring drivers who will not bring their brands into disrepute in some way (not like anyone on the grid is that bad, but for example, I'm sure Sutil isn't very welcome as an ambassador for certain companies) and may also have a regional preferece (drivers from countries where products/services are offered, two drivers from two different nations to expand reach, etc).

There's no way of really knowing Ferrari's options or where Ferrari stands with Massa other than to say that I don't expect him to return in 2013 because I figure you can get a better performance from someone for significantly less expense. But I also don't always trust Ferrari's management.

Mid-season replacement? It's not impossible, but consider that there are drivers who probably would turn Ferrari down if they have better long-term prospects, if they are scared to do a Badoer/Fisichella, if they are aware of how poor the Ferrari is in the wrong hands and fear being more of a Massa than an Alonso, etc. Also, if Ferrari believe that the car is going to be too hard to adapt too without sufficient testing, they might not bother. A driver could step in now, do no better than Massa due to a lack of experience with the admittedly unique F2012, and now the team is stuck paying both Massa and a replacement's wages without seeing any gain.

Which gets us into contractual obligations to Massa, lawyers, disputes, etc.

It can also get us into a sponsor trying to keep Massa for the year, i.e. TNT, a Brazilian beverage that's there because of Massa, or FIAT, who sell a lot of cars in Brazil, or Santander, who do more in Brazil than anywhere else in the world. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure those brands want to be associated with Ferrari and with winning, and there is nothing to base this on. I'm just suggesting that there could be all sorts of factors keeping Massa around, factors that could be as stupid as him and Stefano being lovers or Bernie Ecclestone demanding two Brazilian drivers be in the season-ending Grand Prix given Barrichello's departure.

[Quiet One 15]

It can also get us into a sponsor trying to keep Massa for the year, i.e. TNT, a Brazilian beverage that's there because of Massa, or FIAT, who sell a lot of cars in Brazil, or Santander, who do more in Brazil than anywhere else in the world. Don't get me wrong, I'm sure those brands want to be associated with Ferrari and with winning, and there is nothing to base this on. I'm just suggesting that there could be all sorts of factors keeping Massa around, factors that could be as stupid as him and Stefano being lovers or Bernie Ecclestone demanding two Brazilian drivers be in the season-ending Grand Prix given Barrichello's departure.

This.

I assume that, as daft as Ferrari mgmt can seem at times, they might be pretty aware that they are paying 10M euros for a guy that is trailing his team mate by 100 points and gets confused by corners at circuits. If they are still keeping him around is because they are seeing some benefits we are not aware of, or they are seeing some serious disadvantages on getting rid of him before time.

In any case, considering Massa's actual performance, I think NK would be a better prospect, even if he comes as a driver/HRT car combo.

[Guest]

I'm actually struggling to think of any driver in (or recently out of) F1, that couldn't offer more than Massa.

The decision to keep him can only be financial - it would be less embarrassing to run only one car right now.

Perhaps Ferrari should make a 2-seater then Massa could ride shotgun, seeing as he's already a passenger!

(even then with the extra weight, it would still be Massa'a highest finish of the season)

[Quiet One 15]

I'm actually struggling to think of any driver in (or recently out of) F1, that couldn't offer more than Massa.

The decision to keep him can only be financial - it would be less embarrassing to run only one car right now.

Perhaps Ferrari should make a 2-seater then Massa could ride shotgun, seeing as he's already a passenger!

(even then with the extra weight, it would still be Massa'a highest finish of the season)

He could be very well considered a moveable aero device and banned. Massa dampers are illegal, I think...

[Guest]

He could be very well considered a moveable aero device and banned. Massa dampers are illegal, I think...

I'n not convinced Massa actually moves in the c@ckpit, his performance suggests he's frozen rigid with fear.

[HandyNZL 1]

I'm actually struggling to think of any driver in (or recently out of) F1, that couldn't offer more than Massa.

The decision to keep him can only be financial - it would be less embarrassing to run only one car right now.

Perhaps Ferrari should make a 2-seater then Massa could ride shotgun, seeing as he's already a passenger!

(even then with the extra weight, it would still be Massa'a highest finish of the season)

I think, based on Romain's performance, that just about any driver that "failed" to shine in a lower team (i.e. anyone not in a red, blue or silver/red car) in previous years and has subsequently left F1 would be a match, or perhaps even a better match for Massa.

[Quiet One 15]

I think, based on Romain's performance, that just about any driver that "failed" to shine in a lower team (i.e. anyone not in a red, blue or silver/red car) in previous years and has subsequently left F1 would be a match, or perhaps even a better match for Massa.

You are talking about Nelsinho, right?

[HandyNZL 1]

Oh he would be at the top of my list...any NASCAR winner can win the FIA Formula One World Drivers Championship, fer sure....

[Quiet One 15]

Oh he would be at the top of my list...any NASCAR winner can win the FIA Formula One World Drivers Championship, fer sure....

Nelsinho + Pirelli tires + plenty of crash kids around = Kablammo!

Nelsinho + Alonso + Briatore + Ferrari = Pure evil! All they will have to do is add the Swastika to the cars and I can hear the crowds going "BOO!!!" every time they pass by (except in Spain and Italy, of course but there's only Latin swindlers there so we don't care!).

Oh, come on! I know you would love it! I know I would!

Up yours, RBR, try to top that!

[Argento Reloaded 1]

Ferrari 2014: Nando Vettel

Ferrari 2013: Nando Webber

Ferrari 2012: Nando nobody... but nobody is helping to develop the car, before his 2013 Indy season... or NASCAR!!

[Insider 0]

Hey look, that makes 7,000 posts for George. Joke about calories or kilograms or something.

I think the game plan for Ferrari is to keep the door open for 2014. I suspect Ferrari want Vettel for 2014, but are fine with Pérez in 2014 if they can't sign Vettel (and I don't think they can, personally). Operating on that assumption (and it could be wrong of course), they won't promote Pérez for 2013. If you promote Pérez, you have the options of:

1. Forfeit the chance to try for Vettel in 2014.

2. Try for Vettel, land him, and burn the bridge with Pérez, thus releasing him out into the world, where he may sign with Red Bull to replace Vettel and end up beating you in the championship.

3. Try and fail anyway.

4. To negate all that, you could promote Pérez in 2013, have it all go wrong, and ???

But if you don't promote Pérez, you have, for 2014:

1. Try for Vettel. If you succeed, you get Vettel, and retain Pérez to replace Alonso when he moves on, having the future secured long-term with Vettel and Pérez.

2. Try for Vettel. If you fail, you have Pérez and Alonso which is a great pairing as it is anyway.

It seems to me that the not promoting Pérez yet plan has a lot less risk if Ferrari really do want Vettel.

So what does that mean for 2013? You want someone who will take a one-year deal. That leaves you with:

1. Felipe Massa for another year with an option to be a reserve/road car tester/brand ambassador/Le Mans driver/whatever else you want that isn't an F1 racing driver should he not find a 2014 ride after. Downside: He really isn't serviceable anymore, even as a backup. And he costs a lot. It's a bad call and I love the guy.

2. Michael Schumacher on a one-year deal with some sort of plan to move him into management within the team afterward. He proved today he can still do just fine, and I'm sure the storybook ending of retiring with Ferrari crosses everyone's minds. Downside: He isn't ageless, and "his" Ferrari isn't there anymore. It's the team in name, but not in personnel. It's also baseless right now.

3. Heikki Kovalainen on a one-year-deal for him to try to prove he deserves something better than Caterham for the future. He's steady and he wasn't as bad at McLaren as people say he was. He won a freaking race, back when winning a race was something only three guys could do in an entire season. I know it took some luck and it was a weird one, but hey, a win is a win. Pretty sure he and Alonso get along well, too, if I'm thinking of the right guy. Downside: I honestly can't see one other than, again, this is baseless speculation on my part.

You do have the Webber rumors. If he'd take a one-year deal with Ferrari, sure, do it, but I suspect he's sticking around at Red Bull since neither can do better than each other.

I don't think they retain Massa. But there options for 2013 are limited...

UNLESS they do want to promote Pérez now, which they like to tell the press they don't want to do, but what are they going to tell the press? But doing that, as highlighted, screws up any plans for Vettel...but who says they actually have plans for Vettel other than a lot of the usual tabloid "well every champion has to drive for Ferrari" stuff that isn't really true.

The quickest guy out there is usual fare for the Scuderia. LdM has some problem with Hamilton otherwise, in light of Nando's recent comments he would be on their radar. Unfortunately, history tells us that Marinello is a stable were two thoroughbreds cannot co-exist. That mentality is set in stone. However, if a big enough effort was made then to my mind Nando + Lewis + complete reversal of thinking at the top = WCC.

[Massa 0]

Now all the Vettel talk is heating up. It still doesn't make a lot of sense to me from Vettel's perspective. Unless he knows something significant that we don't (Newey leaving, for example), I don't see it. I know we're getting new rules just in time for 2014, so the field can get all mixed up again, but Ferrari certainly didn't figure out the 2009 rules and haven't been an elite team since. I guess the thinking would be that "all teams are equal" with new regulations in 2014 anyway, and Ferrari are all special and magical and wonderful and can pay him a lot, so why not?

Plus, Ferrari haven't been afraid to get rid of good drivers, even ones delivering results, for drivers they see as even better. Schumacher for Räikkönen, Räikkönen for Alonso...I wonder if Vettel figures he and Alonso will co-exist just for 2014, and then they run with Vettel/Pérez from 2015 on?

I still don't see it, and it's not confirmed yet...it seems to be a lot of websites picking up on the same exact report, so I haven't bought in yet.

What would it mean for Massa?

Nothing.

If the 2013 driver is a lame duck anyway, may as well be a cheap one. Massa costs way too much and would have zero motivation if he knew for sure it was his final year because what the hell does he care? He's milked all his worth and then some from one or two good seasons, and credit to him for that. Meanwhile, a guy like Kovalainen who has been buried in a Caterham would be ready to give it his all as a number two for one year to prove he deserves something better, and he'd do the same or better job for a lot less money...

We're seeing Massa's last year in F1 and I really hope he can magically put together one more decent race before he goes.

I know he won't.

[JHS18 0]

Plus, Ferrari haven't been afraid to get rid of good drivers, even ones delivering results, for drivers they see as even better. Schumacher for Räikkönen, Räikkönen for Alonso...I wonder if Vettel figures he and Alonso will co-exist just for 2014, and then they run with Vettel/Pérez from 2015 on?

I think that is all but impossible on the basis Fernando has a contract with Ferrari till 2017 and has openly talked about extending it further. Also Fernando's said Ferrari will be his last team before retirement, and there has been no hint of him retiring any time soon, I think it is fairly likely he is there for the long haul, like Schumacher was.

Can't see Vettel there as long as Fernando's there, and I definitely can't seem him there as early as '13/'14. I think he's at Red Bull for the long haul....

But then I can't see Hamilton leaving McLaren, and I can't see anyone other than Schumacher at Mercedes for next season either.

Basically, it is fine as it is. I hope everything remains nice and boring and that everyone stays where they are.

[Massa 0]

I can't see it, either; just trying to rationalize the rumors if they were to be true (which I don't believe they are). I wish they'd all do senseless things and jump around, but I don't think they will, definitely not for 2013, and probably not for 2014, either.

Only part of your near-future projection (I'm not ready to talk Alonso and 2017 and extensions...Alonso's also said he'd retire after three titles, so I don't put much weight in what drivers and say, and I put even less weight in long-term contracts in F1 ) I don't believe is the part about Schumacher. I just don't expect him back in F1 for 2013. Mercedes have invested heavily in di Resta over the last half-decade-plus and whether or not you believe he's the real deal (I'm not sold personally, but he's not hopeless either), he apparently has some interest from other teams (like McLaren). They can sign di Resta long-term and for less. They would have to pay Schumacher a lot more, and his shelf-life isn't going to be as long. Schumacher's been better this year, and Valencia was a nice day for him, but he's also not been all that special (to be fair Rosberg isn't all that special, either, but they're about on the same level right now). He can be replaced and it's better to part ways with Schumacher than it is to run the risk of losing di Resta to another team and having him potentially beat you.

I know F1 isn't NASCAR (thankfully), but the same thing just happened there. A team parted with a 40-year-old driver who won this year's Daytona 500 and is leading the points because if they didn't, they would have lost their top prospect who they and Ford have invested a lot in. And why was Ford so nervous about that? Because Ford also poured a lot of money into Jeff Gordon and Kasey Kahne only to have Ford teams balk at replacing their old veterans. Ford ended up getting killed by Gordon in a Chevrolet all through the 90s and having Kahne make waves in a Dodge.

The only reason I mention it is that it's the same line of thinking for Mercedes. Just as Ricky Stenhouse might step into the 17 and do worse than Matt Kenseth (hard to do better than leading the championship), Paul di Resta might step into the Mercedes and be worse than Michael Schumacher. But the risk of losing the guy you've invested in and being beaten by him is too high, and the cost of employing di Resta over Schumacher (just like Stenhouse over Kenseth) is significantly cheaper, and, given the age difference, should be better for securing the long-term (if di Resta turns out to be a bust, they'll be looking for a new driver in two years, true...but if they re-signed Schumacher they'd still be looking for a new driver in two years anyway, so the risk isn't even that big).

Of course, that's just how I think about it...how Mercedes sees it, and what Schumacher himself wants to do next year...that may all differ from how I theoretically run a team over an Internet forum.

And I would hope it would or else they shouldn't be running a team in real life.

[JHS18 0]

I'm not sure if this will make much sense here, but it makes sense in my head, okay?!

On the di Resta thing - Vijay Mallya was interviewed in a recent F1 Racing magazine where he confirmed that both di Resta and Hulkenberg have an extra year on their current contracts, but the team wouldn't block a move be either driver at the end of this year.

My reading into that, and my logic is this. Given the likes of Ross Brawn and others within Mercedes have said they expect Michael to stop on for an extra year, and di Resta having an extra year on his FI contract, it doesn't really give the likes of McLaren chance to sign him. If Michael stays on for another year and the line-up remains unchanged, that limits the places that Hamilton could go. If Mercedes remains the same, the only other place that Hamilton could end up other than McLaren would be at Red Bull if Webber moves across and replaces Massa. But I doubt Red Bull would sign Hamilton to not upset the harmony within the team. So then there's even less of a chance for McLaren to get di Resta.

If Hamilton resigns with McLaren, that'll limit the chance for McLaren to sign di Resta in the short term future. Then di Resta can stay at Force India for another year, Michael can retire at the end of '13, Mercedes can easily promote the guy they've had on the cards for a while and everyone's happy. Michael gets another year, di Resta gets another year of experience kind of away from the main attention...but then if Hamilton DID somehow end up at Red Bull my theory goes completely out the window.

Told you it doesn't make sense.

[Rainmaster 7]

Schumi's performance has been much better this year, and don't forget the marketing benefits that he must bring. I think that line up could remain the same and like JHS said, di Resta will probably stay put because Hamilton will probably stay put (Ron Dennis already publicly defined the battles lines for his next contract negotiation with all his talk of "the economy is much different now"). I honestly don't think there will be that many changes next year (famous last words). I'll just be happy as long as Massa goes

On Vettel: Stirling Moss called him the modern Fangio, and if the reports are true that he has a pre-contract with Ferrari (with options on his side) then he shares with Fangio the foresight of knowing to be "always in the best car". Something which Alonso and Hamilton seem to lack Ferrari holds an allure for drivers because of its history, without doubt. But, like JHS or Eric or both of you pointed to, it's very rare for a young, ambitious driver to leave a team which offers them the championship (Red Bull with Newey) and go to a team which probably won't (Ferrari). Prestige only matters once ambition becomes less important, which is usually when you are towards the end of your career (hence Webber rumours). Ergo, unless Newey leaves or Red Bull's form dips dramatically for other reasons, I find it impossible to imagine Vettel in red in 2014.

Crazy idea: Vettel goes to Ferrari in 2014. Newey goes with him.

[Massa 0]

Crazy idea: Vettel goes to Ferrari in 2014. Newey goes with him.

That's basically where I was going with the "unless Vettel knows something significant that we don't." You'd only leave Newey's team if Newey were going with you...

...but I don't see either one leaving.

I'm not sure if this will make much sense here, but it makes sense in my head, okay?!

On the di Resta thing - Vijay Mallya was interviewed in a recent F1 Racing magazine where he confirmed that both di Resta and Hulkenberg have an extra year on their current contracts, but the team wouldn't block a move be either driver at the end of this year.

My reading into that, and my logic is this. Given the likes of Ross Brawn and others within Mercedes have said they expect Michael to stop on for an extra year, and di Resta having an extra year on his FI contract, it doesn't really give the likes of McLaren chance to sign him. If Michael stays on for another year and the line-up remains unchanged, that limits the places that Hamilton could go. If Mercedes remains the same, the only other place that Hamilton could end up other than McLaren would be at Red Bull if Webber moves across and replaces Massa. But I doubt Red Bull would sign Hamilton to not upset the harmony within the team. So then there's even less of a chance for McLaren to get di Resta.

If Hamilton resigns with McLaren, that'll limit the chance for McLaren to sign di Resta in the short term future. Then di Resta can stay at Force India for another year, Michael can retire at the end of '13, Mercedes can easily promote the guy they've had on the cards for a while and everyone's happy. Michael gets another year, di Resta gets another year of experience kind of away from the main attention...but then if Hamilton DID somehow end up at Red Bull my theory goes completely out the window.

Told you it doesn't make sense.

Hamilton isn't going to Red Bull and Webber isn't going to Ferrari, so it works for now. I didn't realize Force India had an option year for their guys.

But I also wouldn't be certain that McLaren have a full lineup for 2013. I don't expect Button to move, but you have to figure if their performance continues on so poorly, one of the involved parties is going to, at the very least, think about what it would be like to part ways despite their contract. I don't find that to be likely at all, just more likely than Hamilton moving on. I've always maintained that Hamilton's first non-McLaren contract would be with a NASCAR team and I'm not changing that and he's not ready to go to the U.S. just yet.

[Rainmaster 7]

That's basically where I was going with the "unless Vettel knows something significant that we don't." You'd only leave Newey's team if Newey were going with you...

...but I don't see either one leaving.

I figured you meant that or Newey retiring. Anyway, I don't think Newey would want to live in Italy or spend his Sundays in front of the TV any time soon, either. I think Vettel probably does have some kind of agreement with Red Bull and Ferrari, but I imagine he's just being smart and covering bases and probably won't be there until Alonso isn't.