Belgian Grand Prix

[Massa 0]

F1's back this weekend. I hope you guys enjoyed the summer break and put those extra free hours to good use. I can't say I did either of those but it wasn't as agonizing as I figured it would be.

There's a lot of cliché and hyperbole to be said about Spa-Francorchamps, which is a good track that doesn't have anything on La Sarthe or the big Nürburgring but does hold the honor of being one of the few race tracks commonly called "the world's greatest" by people who are not American racing promoters.

So I'll say this:

Glad to have F1 back. What are we expecting for this one?

[AleHop 0]

What are we expecting for this one?

It's very difficult to answer your question. McLaren and Lotus had a stronger car before the summer break but a few things may have changed in 5 weeks. I still consider Raikkonen and Hamilton the main candidates for the win but some other could join the party if the new parts and developments work as expected in Red Bull, Ferrari or Mercedes.

My expectations are high as usually for Spa. I expect anything. Racing, racing, racing...

[Jean-Pierre 0]

Fernando's fight for the title continues, but with such a close field, it is going to be extremely difficult to fend off all contenders and his lead should be reduced.

If Vettel is to win this year, he is going to have to make a move now. But he won't.

Button must be pretty hungry and will probably be on the podium.

Grosjean and Lotus? Close, but not enough.

Let's hope for some surprises, from Nico for example.

[dribbler 6]

Mouth wateringly unpredictable. As we have had a break and are past the halfway point, the outcome will surely be a good indication the remainder of the season.

Climbing off the fence, I think the following is entirely possible;

McLaren will be strong. Strong enough for the win at Spa. Despite all the hype surrounding Lotus, traditionally teams do not suddenly start winning just because eveyone says they will. They need an extra ingredient over and above everyone else. Even with the trick double DRS, my gut feel is that they will not be strong enough here, or anywhere else. A podium down to fith/sixth will be more like it. Personally though, I would like to see three degrees of mouth curl appear on Kimi's face if he can in fact win here.

Alonso will deliver a podium but will not be as happy about this as before. This is because he knows if he is going to take the title, nothing short of strong second places or genuine opportunities to win on merit will be good enough.

Vettel will use his dogged determination to push McLaren hard for the win. A mistake by Hamilton or Button may just help him steal it.

Mercedes will not have made up ground. Sixth or seventh will be their lot. Michael will be stronger (just) than Nico.

Webber (who I saw at Car Fest South this weekend - a true petrol head!) will be okayish, but nothing special. Fourth/fifth place will leave him moody.

This is Massa's pivotal weekend. Nothing short of a 'ten to fifteen seconds behind Alonso at the end' type performance will keep him from losing out to Perez next year.

[Quiet One 15]

I agree more or less with Steve. I give more credit to Lotus, though.

I think, overall, Macca and Lotus will be the aggressive parties whereas RBR and Ferrari will be playing the defensive.

In any case, the fact that even the more predictable outcomes are only marginally more probable a priori than the others makes for a very exciting Spa.

[JHS18 0]

I'm really not sure why so many people are convinced that Lotus will be competitive, or even win here. They've had plenty of chances this year and wasted them all, and I don't think they're going to get any more this year. Going on the basis of what happened in the last race before the summer break is a bit pointless, as it almost certainly won't be like that here.

Normal order has been restored. Red Bull, McLaren, and to a lesser extent, Ferrari, will still be the dominant teams this weekend.

Also think Alonso will once again extend his advantage. May not win, may not even finish on the podium like at Hungary - but I expect he'll still extend his advantage.

Not expecting any major surprises, but then again who knows what'll happen in regards to the infamous Spa weather?

[Quiet One 15]

I'm really not sure why so many people are convinced that Lotus will be competitive, or even win here. They've had plenty of chances this year and wasted them all, and I don't think they're going to get any more this year. Going on the basis of what happened in the last race before the summer break is a bit pointless, as it almost certainly won't be like that here.

Normal order has been restored. Red Bull, McLaren, and to a lesser extent, Ferrari, will still be the dominant teams this weekend.

Also think Alonso will once again extend his advantage. May not win, may not even finish on the podium like at Hungary - but I expect he'll still extend his advantage.

Not expecting any major surprises, but then again who knows what'll happen in regards to the infamous Spa weather?

Why not think that Lotus can win? The strange thing is that they haven't won yet. They have one of the fastest cars, a good team overall, a fast qualifier in Romain and a fast racer and WDC in Kimi. What else do they need? Their strategy usually sucks, but that's easier to turn around than a fundamentally badly conceived car, for example. Their pitstops could improve as well. Again, it's not as if they need something out of this world to win, just some tweaks and putting all that together. They have all the ingredients to be WDC contenders, they just need to make them into a package. That means making all work along and to make better use of their advantages when their shortcomings are evident. Ferrari is doing exactly that this year. And they have more shortcomings than RBR, Macca and Lotus.

That is why any of those 3 teams can easily give Ferrari a run for their money.

[JHS18 0]

Their car only seems to be very competitive (by that I mean in with a shot of a win) is when it's really hot. Think Bahrain, Hungary, and also Valencia till Grosjean's alternator packed up. Those are the only three races they've been really in with a shot, and they've not been able to win.

Going into Spa, which typically is always quite cool, I very much doubt they'll be in contention this weekend. Furthermore, the thing that Bahrain, Hungary and Valencia have had is common is that they're mostly all made up of quite slow speed corners and technical sections. There is no track on the calendar F1 visits that has more high speed corners than Spa. Okay, at Silverstone, Grosjean had very good pace, but was it good enough to beat the Red Bulls or Ferraris? I personally don't think it was.

The season is more than half over and Alonso has a 40 point lead over second place in the championship. Raikkonen's too far back to be a serious challenger now. Most likely it'll be between Alonso, Hamilton, Vettel and maybe Webber for the championship.

So, as I said originally, I don't see why everyone's so sure they'll be a contender this weekend.

[Massa 0]

Silverstone was two months ago. A lot can change, both at Lotus and everywhere else. That doesn't mean Lotus will be better, worse, or the same. But I don't think there's much to be made out of any of the past races. I don't think it will be a Lotus domination, and I don't think Räikkönen has a chance at the WDC, but that doesn't mean they're only allowed to finish sixth every weekend. This isn't that kind of season.

Räikkönen excels at Spa and Lotus have been trending upward throughout the season. I don't think those are bad reasons to believe Lotus will be competitive this weekend, and I don't think it's wrong to go into this race hoping they'll be competitive because I doubt any of us have waited five weeks to go in with a bleak mindset about the depth of the field. I think Lotus can win races, but it will be with Räikkönen, and that's going to depend on him figuring out how to qualify. He can pull fastest lap out of his *** whenever he wants to, so I'm not sure why he's never thought to do that on a Saturday.

Did McLaren end the first part of the year with the best car? I think so. But again, that was five weeks ago.

The FIA have put Red Bull in a tight corner, and it became more likely that they were changing the ride height between qualifying and the race, given their opening laps pace magically disappeared. That doesn't mean they're dead or out of it but they seem rattled, and they seem to be losing some advantages at the enforcement of regulations, whether that's fair or not. I wouldn't be betting on them yet. But that was five weeks ago.

Ferrari are impossible to predict, as if any of the others were simple (they aren't). I've written them off in the WCC because they have Massa. Alonso and the WDC? It's all about consistency. One retirement and that cushion doesn't seem too comfortable anymore, does it? The key for Alonso to win the title is to **** points away to someone else each week. If he finishes fifth and the same guy wins over and over, he's done. If they keep rotating through some winners, and Alonso gives the Ferrari some podium finishes, he might have enough. His advantage is that this year is competitive. A straight two-man fight where only two cars can win, he'd be cooked. But that's a lot of ifs and all we have this weekend is one race, not the remaining 8 or 9 or however many are left. And the last time we saw the F2012? Five weeks ago.

[yurp 0]

yay - F1's back!

...that is all

[Peeweev 0]

First of all: I second Yurp!

yay - F1's back!

second of all WEATHER!!! surely that will play a big part!

Rain is often a participent of Spa.

I wonder who has been thinking about races or the whole championship. If people have been thinking about races and bringing updates for each race then we could have some cars being good in all weathers but if some have just gone for lots of dry updates it will be alonso! mclaren arent good enough in the rain and that could cost them in the long term! They need to have sorted that.

Lotus arent very quick in the cooler conditions but have double drs which may offset that leaving them with an ok finish!

TO answer who will win ..... I dunno! but def not a HRT!

[BradSpeedMan 6]

The season is more than half over and Alonso has a 40 point lead over second place in the championship. Raikkonen's too far back to be a serious challenger now. Most likely it'll be between Alonso, Hamilton, Vettel and maybe Webber for the championship.

I don't understand...Kimi has 1 less point than Hamilton?????

[Quiet One 15]

Each team must have been working mainly on their notorious deficiencies in the first half, so I am not so sure that generic problems like "X being faster/slower under Y conditions" is a good indication. They all are striving for being good under all conditions so some teams might even be weaker under their previous "strongest" conditions because they changed their approach.

As for HRT. I am growing fond of them. These guys have no car, no drivers and no money. With all those considerations, they have gone from not reaching the 107% to being very close and surpassing the Marussias. In a sense, they are one of the teams that move forward the most. Are they crap? Yes. But let's not forget that people were crying for "teams like in the days of old and no more bic corporations!!" well, older teams started all as crap. People wants Brabhams of the 80s or Lotus from the 70s, forgetting that for each Tyrrell there were dozens of Andrea Modas.

[Quiet One 15]

I don't understand...Kimi has 1 less point than Hamilton?????

Well...considering that Hamilton trashed Alonso by zero points. 1 point diff sounds like an unassailable position

[BradSpeedMan 6]

Well...considering that Hamilton trashed Alonso by zero points. 1 point diff sounds like an unassailable position

I still see him placed above Alonso because of higher earned podium finishing during the year...if it was the championship, who would win?

[AleHop 0]

I still see him placed above Alonso because of higher earned podium finishing during the year...if it was the championship, who would win?

How's that? If Spa were the last race of the season the title would be Alonso's. If it finished in Monza it would be virtually his.

It's all in the air because there are 9 more races where anything can happen. Higher earned podium finishing is simply an opinion.

Facts and figures is what earn championships. The points count after the final race and nothing else.

[JHS18 0]

I don't understand...Kimi has 1 less point than Hamilton?????

Question. How many wins has Hamilton had so far this year? Two.

How many wins has Raikkonen had so far this year? None.

Simple.

Lotus are not in a position to win, or if they have been, they've missed it. McLaren haven't.

[Quiet One 15]

Question. How many wins has Hamilton had so far this year? Two.

How many wins has Raikkonen had so far this year? None.

Simple.

Lotus are not in a position to win, or if they have been, they've missed it. McLaren haven't.

...so far, oh ye of little faith.

[Quiet One 15]

I still see him placed above Alonso because of higher earned podium finishing during the year...if it was the championship, who would win?

He is above Alonso beacuse of podium finishes. So yes, you can say he beat Alonso if it makes you feel better. But hardly "trashed" him.

Same logic that considering Hamilton a contender and Kimi one point behind as not a contender with 200 points to go...

[Massa 0]

I don't think wet weather is going to be a factor for time trials or for the race. Cooler weather, probably, maybe. I don't actually know what a "normal" temperature is for a Grand Prix, and I'd tell you the temperature for Spa-Francorchamps but you'll get all angry at me for using Fahrenheit degrees instead of cubic hectometers per decigram (21° C on the day that counts).

Eliseo Salazar is the driver steward. He's been racing in Grand-Am this year, a series that doesn't have any stewards so I suspect this is all new to him. Salazar lives near Pittsburgh these days with his young son, who was getting into karting as far as I knew. I have no idea how any of this would be of any interest to anyone or have any impact on the race, but there you go. He was one of the very first open-wheel drivers I knew of, along with a few others that preceded learning about Michael Schumacher, who I assumed was American until I learned the shocking, horrifying news that they race cars in other countries, too. Next they'll try to tell me adults play and watch soccer.

Question. How many wins has Hamilton had so far this year? Two.

How many wins has Raikkonen had so far this year? None.

Simple.

Lotus are not in a position to win, or if they have been, they've missed it. McLaren haven't.

A few weeks ago, McLaren's season was over, Button was in ruins, Hamilton was leaving, they were never going to win another race again.

A lot changes in F1. The cars aren't the only things that move fast. I'm not ready to hand anything to anyone or write anyone off.

Besides, F1's decided by points, of which Hamilton and Räikkönen have nearly equal amounts, not by medals.

It'll take Räikkönen an average of:

• ~5.333 points per race gained on Alonso to equal Alonso at year's end.
  
• ~0.889 points per race gained on Webber to equal Webber at year's end.
  
• ~0.667 points per race gained on Vettel to equal Vettel at year's end.
  
• ~0.111 points per race gained on Hamilton to equal Hamilton at year's end.
  

None of those are particularly daunting. The hardest part about being fifth is relying on three guys ahead of you in points to not be better at being better than the guy in first than you are. But it's not too hard, or too unique, considering Alonso relies on all four of these guys to steal points from each other, rather than from him, to hold on, as if one of them just lights it up week after week, it's over. If Räikkönen wins Spa, and Webber finishes third or worse, regardless of where the others finish, Räikkönen is second in points. It's pretty damn close.

And then there's this...

...so far, oh ye of little faith.

Exactly.

[AleHop 0]

Ooops... I didn't realise Brad was talking about 2007.

[BradSpeedMan 6]

Ooops... I didn't realise Brad was talking about 2007.

-20 brownie points for confusing the hell out of me...

[Quiet One 15]

http://www.totalf1.com/full_story/view/426437/Alonso_hoping_for_wet_Belgian_GP/

Alonso having more faith on impredictable weather than on his own team's ability to improve the car over the competition. That can't be good.

Any of the 'candidates' with a good consistent car is more than capable of closing the 40pt gap (for example, if the RBRs go back to a dominant mode, or McLaren fulfills its promise). Competition has to step up to catch Alonso, as Lauda said, but Ferrari should step up as well. Otherwise even in the hypothesis of a WDC, it would be won via 4th places at most venues...

[Rainmaster 7]

Eliseo Salazar the driver steward? What better excuse to post this clip (I just love the commentary):

Other than that, I agree that the season is still very close and it's not even yet a case of it being "Alonso's title to lose". It's still too close for that. He has to go out there and attack for podiums and wins, but stay out of trouble and not take too many risks, which makes his job the hardest. Happily for him he's the best at judging that fine line, which is why he has the lead in the first place.

Can Lotus win? Yes. I don't know how you could write them off on the basis they haven't done it yet. Will they win? Different thing entirely and not worth discussing too much until we get an idea from practice, but they probably need at least two things: a perfect weekend with no mistakes (they haven't had it yet) and good weather conditions. It's not like we are talking about HRT winning here, like Andres said they seem to have a fundamentally good car so it's more a question for them of improving operationally, as it was for Mclaren (to a much greater extent) not too long ago.

[Argento Reloaded 1]

I always view Piquet Sr. as a pussy, and watching how he fights... pathetic! I saw 9 year old girls more dangerous!