Ruslan

Championship Over?

51 posts in this topic

I think Vettel removed himself from contention for the championship today. I already felt he was behind. Of the next six races, at least three favor the Mercedes and I don't think any favor the Ferraris. So, with 7 points being the difference between first and second, perhaps as many as 42 more additional points over Vettel could be gained by Hamilton. For Vettel to win the championship, he needed to win Singapore and have Hamilton drop out of at least one other race. Instead Vettel dropped out of the one race he was favored to win.  Now to win Vettel needs 1) to finish ahead of Hamilton in 5 out of the next 6 races, or 2) for Hamilton to drop out one race and Vettel to finish ahead of Hamilton in 3 out of other 5 races, or 3)  Vettel is going to need Hamilton to drop out of 2 of the next 6 races. Mercedes has had one retirement in 28 races between its two drivers..

At this point, I think it is over (better than 95% chance of Hamilton taking the championship).

Edited by Ruslan

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Not over until the fat lady sings but it is definitely more than difficult now.

But what if Lewis gets a DNF out of the remaining races? If something can go wrong it will go wrong.

Nothing is impossible.

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18 September 2017   8:17 (CEST)

It is not over yet, however Seb's racing life from now on will be very difficult, not much doubt about that, to state obvious.

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6 hours ago, Sakae said:

18 September 2017   8:17 (CEST)

It is not over yet, however Seb's racing life from now on will be very difficult, not much doubt about that, to state obvious.

And it's his own fault.

He's had the best car this year. If he was that good, he would be winning this Championship. 

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10 hours ago, radical-one said:

Not over until the fat lady sings but it is definitely more than difficult now.

But what if Lewis gets a DNF out of the remaining races? If something can go wrong it will go wrong.

Nothing is impossible.

The problem is that one DNF does not equal the playing field. It just brings them back to almost tied...and the car and the tracks favor Hamilton. Vettel would still have to win the majority of the races, which I don't think it possible. Vettel's only real hope is two DNFs. So, lets say the odds of a single DNF is 2 in 28 (I count Hamilton's 7th place result as a failed day in this case). This is a 7% chance. The odds of a single DNF over the next 6 races is 36% (but this does not win it for Vettel). The odds of two are 13%. An then there are the odds of a Ferrari DNF, which have been higher (at least 14% which over 6 races is 60%). So.....0.4 times (odds of Vettel not getting a DNF) times 0.13 (odds of Hamilton getting two DNFs) = 0.05 (5%). This is of course, assuming that the Vettel/Ferrari really can't consistently beat the Hamilton/Mercedes on track (which I think there is a very strong argument for).

Edited by Ruslan

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19 minutes ago, VicVenom said:

And it's his own fault.

He's had the best car this year. If he was that good, he would be winning this Championship. 

Agree with the first sentence, disagree with the second. It was clear that the two cars were roughly equal in the first six or so races of the season, and then Mercedes pulled ahead in development at least on the faster tracks. While I do believe that Hamilton is the better driver of the two drivers, he also did have the better car for the second half of the season. On the other hand, Vettel pretty much dominated Raikonnen and Bottas this season, so you can hardly claim that Vettel is not one of the best out there.

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28 minutes ago, Ruslan said:

Agree with the first sentence, disagree with the second. It was clear that the two cars were roughly equal in the first six or so races of the season, and then Mercedes pulled ahead in development at least on the faster tracks. While I do believe that Hamilton is the better driver of the two drivers, he also did have the better car for the second half of the season. On the other hand, Vettel pretty much dominated Raikonnen and Bottas this season, so you can hardly claim that Vettel is not one of the best out there.

Kimi is crap these days. Put Max or Alonso in the Ferrari and you would see its true potential. Vettel is pretty average really. 

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I think Hamilton will be champ again, he´s got the better car, he is more experienced and he doesnt have the enemy at home like last year... he now has a team driver that is always looking to help him and not to race him... he is more relaxed and focused. Vettel has the pressure on... and that pressure is getting bigger and bigger every day, with a car that is not the fastest all the races. Mercedes is still at another league.

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2 hours ago, ecapdeville said:

Mercedes is still at another league.

Hamilton is in another league to Vettel.

As are many others on the grid. 

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On 18/9/2017 at 7:38 PM, VicVenom said:

Hamilton is in another league to Vettel.

As are many others on the grid. 

Don´t know... Lets put both with the same car and we´ll see... obviously this is a case of better hardware than driver. 

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On 9/18/2017 at 10:11 PM, VicVenom said:

And it's his own fault.

He's had the best car this year. If he was that good, he would be winning this Championship. 

Nope.

Vettel didn't have the best car this year.

Hamilton does.

And so, the results.

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On 9/18/2017 at 11:06 PM, VicVenom said:

Kimi is crap these days. Put Max or Alonso in the Ferrari and you would see its true potential. Vettel is pretty average really. 

Nope.

Vettel is not average. He's worthless at times for sure. But, generally speaking, he can run the package to its limit. Never beyond, mind you. He is not unlike Hamilton in this regard.

And the limits of the cars this year mean that Mercedes is better than Ferrari so Hamilton is better than Vettel. There is no more to it, really, despite hiccups along the way.

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It is too late to panic. They have lost the development battle. Mercedes has the edge in at least three of the next six races, and possibly in all six. If Mercedes has three guaranteed wins and three contested races, then there is no way for Ferrari to win it short of Hamilton having two car failures/crashes in the next six races. Hamilton has had less crashes than Vettel this season.

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14 hours ago, ecapdeville said:

Don´t know... Lets put both with the same car and we´ll see... obviously this is a case of better hardware than driver. 

Ah my friend, good to see u back

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9 hours ago, maure said:

Nope.

Vettel is not average. He's worthless at times for sure. But, generally speaking, he can run the package to its limit. Never beyond, mind you. He is not unlike Hamilton in this regard.

And the limits of the cars this year mean that Mercedes is better than Ferrari so Hamilton is better than Vettel. There is no more to it, really, despite hiccups along the way.

A package can't be run beyond it's limit. It's impossible. This is the propaganda s##t that came from St. Alfonso claiming the car was so crap he took it beyond its capabilities fighting for the championship when in fact he had a pretty decent car!.

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1 hour ago, BradSpeedMan said:

A package can't be run beyond it's limit. It's impossible. This is the propaganda s##t that came from St. Alfonso claiming the car was so crap he took it beyond its capabilities fighting for the championship when in fact he had a pretty decent car!.

Same can be said about him, the Driver is crap but over paid beyond his capabilities 

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These type of discussions are painful. Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel are all truly great drivers and roughly equal in ability, and clearly over the last decade have proven to be the top three drivers in F1. Yes, there are differences between them, and yet, one might be slightly better than another in some aspects of racecraft, and yes, they all have reasons for someone to dislike them as a person, but all three are great drivers. It is pretty infantile to try to claim otherwise. The people in the know would not be paying tens of millions of dollars to employ an average driver. That simply does not pass the smell test.

 

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4 minutes ago, Ruslan said:

These type of discussions are painful. Hamilton, Alonso and Vettel are all truly great drivers and roughly equal in ability, and clearly over the last decade have proven to be the top three drivers in F1. Yes, there are differences between them, and yet, one might be slightly better than another in some aspects of racecraft, and yes, they all have reasons for someone to dislike them as a person, but all three are great drivers. It is pretty infantile to try to claim otherwise. The people in the know would not be paying tens of millions of dollars to employ an average driver. That simply does not pass the smell test.

 

21 September 2017   14:39 (CEST)

Common sense and civility has returned to the forum. I can live with that, and I am sorry for doubting you for a while, L.....e

Edited by Sakae

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17 hours ago, maure said:

Nope.

Vettel didn't have the best car this year.

Hamilton does.

And so, the results.

Vettel had the best car most weekends. His stupidity at Singapore and Baku has cost him.

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8 hours ago, BradSpeedMan said:

A package can't be run beyond it's limit. It's impossible. This is the propaganda s##t that came from St. Alfonso claiming the car was so crap he took it beyond its capabilities fighting for the championship when in fact he had a pretty decent car!.

Just a shame Vettel had a much better car. 

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23 hours ago, ecapdeville said:

Don´t know... Lets put both with the same car and we´ll see... obviously this is a case of better hardware than driver. 

You look creepy.

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