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Sakae

2018 F1 season - discussion

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9 March 2018, 19:11

Internet is buzzing with negativity about Ferrari's chances. If I understand those complains, in summary:

- unstable in turns

- underpowered (compared to MB)

- uses too much fuel (10 kg more than MB)

- and for some, there is of course (slow) Vettel factor

It might not be worth it to stay late for Oz then, or should I hold on and wait?

Quote

Over the two test sessions, the Scuderia Ferrari drivers covered a total of 929 laps (286 for Kimi and 643 for Sebastian) equivalent to 4324 kilometers.

 

Edited by Sakae

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 Mclaren/Alonso:

returning to put in the second fastest lap of the day and third fastest of this year's testing.

 

When it RUNS,  it IS FASTish.  NOT the fastest BUT faster than LAST year`s Honda.
As a Mclaren fan I WILL accept THIRD fastest. 
The championship IS over 20 races. CONSISTENTLY third/podium = POINTS
Points WIN prizes !!!

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PU must be supplied to customers  the same as a factory team has it. McLaren's PU then should be, at least in theory, on the same level as RBR and Renault.

Edited by Sakae

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9 March 2018, 20:02  -  Final thoughts about testing:

  • I understand logistics side of this, but in this cold weather shouldn't they have tested in warmer climate instead and generate some credible data?
  • Pleasant surprise: Toro Rosso, Haas
  • Reassurance: Ferrari's reliability
  • Sad story of bygone era: Williams; nothing much more to say 
Edited by Sakae

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57 minutes ago, Sakae said:

9 March 2018, 19:11

Internet is buzzing with negativity about Ferrari's chances. If I understand those complains, in summary:

- unstable in turns

- underpowered (compared to MB)

- uses too much fuel (10 kg more than MB)

- and for some, there is of course (slow) Vettel factor

It might not be worth it to stay late for Oz then, or should I hold on and wait?

 

I agree that there's a lot of negativity about Ferrari, one has to wonder if it's about what they did during the testing sessions or something else. Vettel can be called many things but certainly not slow. 

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Bottas is meanwhile drooling over how MB is stable in high speed corners, next to being faster than last year. If he is trying to scare billiard ball out of me, than he is doing fine job.

Edited by Sakae

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7 hours ago, Sakae said:

9 March 2018, 20:02  -  Final thoughts about testing:

  • I understand logistics side of this, but in this cold weather shouldn't they have tested in warmer climate instead and generate some credible data?
  • Pleasant surprise: Toro Rosso, Haas
  • Reassurance: Ferrari's reliability
  • Sad story of bygone era: Williams; nothing much more to say 

Don't leave out the Mclarens - KARMA

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11 hours ago, Sakae said:

. If he is trying to scare billiard ball out of me, than he is doing fine job.

Why?

The one where should be scared is Bottas himself.

1. Remember my comment about Ferrari race sim on very high fuel loads, it was observed trackside... especially on Vettel's simulation. Vettel has admitted on Ted Kravitz Notebook that he still had plenty of fuel left after his race sim. The real picture is that Ferrari is as close to Merc as could be, if not better... I'm talking race sim. I read somewhere they even drove around with extra ballast, don't know if I really believe that

2. Vettel did his trick again on his fastest lap where he backed off again at the final stretch. I suspect he could do mid 1:16's

3. Vettel's comment about extracting more performance out of the car. It should not be taken lightly. Ferrari has opted for higher-rake and change to aerodynamic concepts. They went very aggressive. Yet the car has proven to be a beast! Already! Merc seem to blister their tyres a lot, Ferrari less so. It might hurt Merc in the long runs when they are pushed

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16 minutes ago, BradSpeedMan said:

Why?

The one where should be scared is Bottas himself.

1. Remember my comment about Ferrari race sim on very high fuel loads, it was observed trackside... especially on Vettel's simulation. Vettel has admitted on Ted Kravitz Notebook that he still had plenty of fuel left after his race sim. The real picture is that Ferrari is as close to Merc as could be, if not better... I'm talking race sim. I read somewhere they even drove around with extra ballast, don't know if I really believe that

2. Vettel did his trick again on his fastest lap where he backed off again at the final stretch. I suspect he could do mid 1:16's

3. Vettel's comment about extracting more performance out of the car. It should not be taken lightly. Ferrari has opted for higher-rake and change to aerodynamic concepts. They went very aggressive. Yet the car has proven to be a beast! Already! Merc seem to blister their tyres a lot, Ferrari less so. It might hurt Merc in the long runs when they are pushed

10 March 2018, 08:56  -  Thanks Brad for warm and calming words. I am of course realizing that Ferrari likes to hold cards close to the body, contrary to some headlines I've seen. Would they play outsiders with some not-so-normal tricks just to lure them into laziness and defensive inactivity? OK, maybe, but what would they gain from it? They are all experienced and no one would fall for it. I am still scratching my head over the reported Renault GPS analysis, which paints Ferrari in troubling terms in third place. Lauda identified RBR as their foremost challenger, which means he thinks Ferrari - for now - has issues. It is going to be painful wait for the first race, but then, isn't it so every year? :) 

Edited by Sakae

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10 March 2018, 09:30 - Understand, however I am not a big fan of simple additions and subtractions, for there are some other factors in that equation. MB did not run on the new tire, and it is hard to say how they would compare to Vettel's time in the same time-slot (track temp.). Fuel load is another issue. MB driver claimed they never tested times on light load, which leads me to basic doubts, whether we are comparing apples to apples. I am hoping that your optimism is justified.

There is one factor which they all seems to agreed on - Vettel's tires were in very good shape.

Edited by Sakae

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19 March 2018, 10:02 -  I think MB should unapologetically say good bye to Hamilton, appoint other driver and do so on their time line. Time is ripe for shrugging their shoulders and walk away from that individual. 

Quote

"We started talking about it but it's not really my priority at the moment," Hamilton said at a sponsor event, according to Spain's Diario Sport. "I want to keep racing, so I have to renew it at some point, but I will not do it when others want me to. I'll do it when everything is ready," Hamilton added.

I think a guy from RBR is available.

Edited by Sakae

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19 March 2018, 17:31 - Est. team budgets for 2018 (origins unknown)

Mercedes Approx. €450 million
Ferrari Approx. €430 million
Red Bull Approx. €350 million
McLaren Approx. €250 million
Renault Approx. €200 million
Sauber Approx. €135 million
Williams Approx. €135 million
Toro Rosso Approx. €125 million
Haas Approx. €110 million
Force India Approx. €110 million

 

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2 hours ago, Sakae said:

19 March 2018, 17:31 - Est. team budgets for 2018 (origins unknown)

Mercedes Approx. €450 million
Ferrari Approx. €430 million
Red Bull Approx. €350 million
McLaren Approx. €250 million
Renault Approx. €200 million
Sauber Approx. €135 million
Williams Approx. €135 million
Toro Rosso Approx. €125 million
Haas Approx. €110 million
Force India Approx. €110 million

 

Need I say anything about this "sporting" series. ;)

Suspect the Mercedes budget is underestimated. Suspect the Force India budget is overestimated. The only one that is actually "knowable" is the Williams budget. That figure seems to be an unusually low figure for Williams. It was higher in past years.

Does the Mercedes, Ferrari and Renault budgets include the engines?

 

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Reported budgets were not supported with any explanation, but having taken into consideration reported cost of engines, I think EUR 110 MM would be probably too low.

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10 hours ago, Sakae said:

19 March 2018, 10:02 -  I think MB should unapologetically say good bye to Hamilton, appoint other driver and do so on their time line. Time is ripe for shrugging their shoulders and walk away from that individual. 

I think a guy from RBR is available.

Apparently Hamilton admitted that he had offers from Ferrari, which I find very curious. Is Ferrari really looking to match Hamilton vs Vettel? Does Ferrari believe that Hamilton is faster?

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This is not most likely a recent contact Hamilton is blabbing about. Reported call to him was allegedly made well back as far as I am aware off, however I do not know which year exactly. I've heard about such rumors about 2 to 3 years ago when it was clear who will be leaving red team, and there was no suitable replacement signed yet. It was never certain initially that Vettel will change teams, so management placed several calls. I also know (or read) that SM said couple of years ago that he preferred Vettel to Hamilton, but definitely not both on the same time line. 

Edited by Sakae

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Yea, I think both at the same team would be pretty explosive (and damn entertaining).

But the line in the article posted today was "However, Hamilton admits he has receive offers from Maranello."

So not sure when he is referring to, but I am guessing he is referring to events more recent than 2 or 3 years ago. We are talking about the ride for 2019 and on. See: https://www.gpguide.com/News.aspx?articleId=MXwwMy8xOS8yMDE4IDAwOjAwOjAwfEhhbWlsdG9uIGhpbnRzIGF0IE1lcmNlZGVzIGNvbnRyYWN0IGRlbGF5

 

Edited by Ruslan

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8 hours ago, lipstick79 said:

Mclaren HAVE said; reliability issues resolved.
It is NOW down to Alonso to PERFORM with the race WINNING PU

He will park the car again ;)

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9 hours ago, Ruslan said:

Yea, I think both at the same time would be pretty explosive (and damn entertaining).

But the line in the article posted today was "However, Hamilton admits he has receive offers from Maranello."

So not sure when he is referring to, but I am guessing he is referring to events more recent than 2 or 3 years ago. We are talking about the ride for 2019 and on. See: https://www.gpguide.com/News.aspx?articleId=MXwwMy8xOS8yMDE4IDAwOjAwOjAwfEhhbWlsdG9uIGhpbnRzIGF0IE1lcmNlZGVzIGNvbnRyYWN0IGRlbGF5

 

The article depicts Hamilton as someone who holds upper hand in negotiations with MB. I seriously doubt that MB is without options to drop him. (DR is looking for a contract). The guy talks too much and then he wonders why "people do not like me". He is also on the record talking down Ferrari, and how he NEVER was lured by their history or fame, and couldn't be a*****d driving for them. He acts as its all about him, and nobody else. These days of alternative realities I am not surprised that some people like his attitude, however I am not one of them, just as I am seriously in doubt, that people of Maranello would accept him.

Edited by Sakae

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20 March 2018, 13:45 

WOLFF: BREAKAWAY F1 COULD HAPPEN IF WE DON’T ALIGN OUR VISION

Quote

This is not the first time that Wolff has publically supported Marchionne, but at the same time the Mercedes boss is keen to avert a split, “I will give it everything to align the vision among us by seeking consensus and accepting compromise.

For some of us who have eyes open, there is enough of evidence on the web, that Ferrari is not alone in its cautious approach to changes as rumored.

 

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Is it time again to predict outcome of the season before us? I am not usually big on predictions, but for once I will break the tradition.

Come Dec 2018:

  • F1 champion in making: Esteban Ocon (fine technician and IMO better than Verstappen who is rather crude, resembling a bull in China shop)
  • WDC: Vettel
  • WCC: Mercedes
  • Most improved team: Haas with TR closely behind
  • Tier 1 club: Ferrari and Mercedes (I have just 2 names)
  • Notable: Stronger Sauber under steady hand of Frédéric Vasseur.
Edited by Sakae

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Ok lets see. 

WDC : Lewis

WCC : Mercedes

Pecking Order

Mercedes

Ferrari

Red bull 

Haas/Renault

McLaren

Williams/force india

Toro rosso 

Sauber

Haas to start strong but Renault to hold 4th position as the season progresses.

Toro rosso with Honda engine looks good but I am not sure about the driver lineup

McLaren was not reliable but I feel that they had pace when the car runs reliable and I feel they would become strong from spain.

 

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