Brazil Nuts

[Autumnpuma 0]

OK, going into the final round here are some possible scenarios, points-wise. Any other stuff I might have forgotten, chime in.

Odds still favor the points leader, Hamilton but only just. He needs to take first or second to take the title. If he finished third with Alonso winning it will be a tie and Alonso will take it based on race wins. Taking Kimi out of it for a minute, any other scenario with just Alonso would mean Hamilton needs to finish two spots behind Alonso to take the title. In a straight fight with just Kimi, Hamilton needs only to finish fifth or better to take the title. Hamilton's strategy will be to keep ahead of Alonso or just behind him while ensuring he is within five places of Kimi. This is not a very tall order if he goes his usual quick and consistent.

Alonso is sniffing at the title like it's a b!tch's behind in heat. He can take it if he uses the track wisely and has a bit of luck. He needs Hamilton to be two cars behind him and Kimi to be just ahead of him to take the title. The later will be easier than the former, that's for sure.

Kimi has a slim chance of taking the title. He's in the unsavory position of trusting to luck...and luck is one lady he doesn't make moist. Kimi needs Alonso to be two cars back and Hamilton to be six cars back to take the title (five cars if Kimi wins the race). In other words, his title will be determined not so much by his skill, as by Alonso and Hammy's mistakes.

So, does that sum it up?

[Rainmaster 7]

Certainly does. (sum it up)

[dribbler 6]

Yep, i reckon as far as likely scenarios go, you have them covered, Mike. I do love the air of expectancy and unceratainty that is building. As much as i want Lewis to take the title, i would love a race with a sting in its tail.

[Max Mosley 2]

Yeah good post. One thing that's interesting is which team will be most competitive at Brazil? If Ferrari are dominant, then I think that makes Lewis's job significantly easier because the points are closer from 3rd down and Fernando will need Lewis further back. On the other hand, if McLaren are dominant that would also be easy for Lewis. The worst case would be if McLaren and Ferrari are relatively equal, when it would be easiest for Fernando to get a car in between himself and Lewis. What do people expect?

[Rainmaster 7]

Well Murray I expect Mclaren to have a slight edge (due to kerbs), but I think that it'll be close, sadly.

[dribbler 6]

lewis must try and win the title from the front of the field, it's the only certain way he can win the title. Planning a strategy is risky and likely to unsettle his normal weekend approach. Fernando out front and Kimi chasing is no good, he must attack.

[Max Mosley 2]

Yup I agree with you both. Rain is another factor I didn't mention. It'd be better off not raining, but the McLaren tends to do well in those conditions so it's not the end of the world.

[dribbler 6]

One thing's for certain, nothing is certain. Not something we could say during Michael's reign, i guess.

[Fed up 0]

OK, going into the final round here are some possible scenarios, points-wise. Any other stuff I might have forgotten, chime in.

Odds still favor the points leader, Hamilton but only just. He needs to take first or second to take the title. If he finished third with Alonso winning it will be a tie and Alonso will take it based on race wins. Taking Kimi out of it for a minute, any other scenario with just Alonso would mean Hamilton needs to finish two spots behind Alonso to take the title. In a straight fight with just Kimi, Hamilton needs only to finish fifth or better to take the title. Hamilton's strategy will be to keep ahead of Alonso or just behind him while ensuring he is within five places of Kimi. This is not a very tall order if he goes his usual quick and consistent.

Alonso is sniffing at the title like it's a b!tch's behind in heat. He can take it if he uses the track wisely and has a bit of luck. He needs Hamilton to be two cars behind him and Kimi to be just ahead of him to take the title. The later will be easier than the former, that's for sure.

Kimi has a slim chance of taking the title. He's in the unsavory position of trusting to luck...and luck is one lady he doesn't make moist. Kimi needs Alonso to be two cars back and Hamilton to be six cars back to take the title (five cars if Kimi wins the race). In other words, his title will be determined not so much by his skill, as by Alonso and Hammy's mistakes.

So, does that sum it up?

Good use of language as usual - Good post

[elgo 1]

yeah

[Autumnpuma 0]

lewis must try and win the title from the front of the field, it's the only certain way he can win the title. Planning a strategy is risky and likely to unsettle his normal weekend approach. Fernando out front and Kimi chasing is no good, he must attack.

I think he'll do just that. I'm wondering if it wouldn't be better for Hamilton to just hug Alonso's arse and take the title that way. A bit smelly, but perhaps a safer bet. Of course if he did that, he wouldn't be the dynamic racer I admire....

[Quiet One 15]

You forgot scenario number 4: somebody goes to FIA with a youtube video, an mp3 or some scale model made with toothpicks and a bit of paper and proves that they all should be investigated. Britney Spears becomes the new WDC.

We all make a conga line and Russ becomes a rabbi.

[Argento Reloaded 1]

So Felipe Massa won

[pumpdoc 2]

Lewis will fold like a cheap sute, but he still might win the WDC.

[Autumnpuma 0]

Lewis will fold like a cheap sute, but he still might win the WDC.

Before China I would have disputed you, but now I'm not as confident of Hammy's ability to handle the pressure. Brazil is a track that will favor the longer Ferrari so no problem if Kimi ends up ahead of the McLarens....the pressure on Hamilton will be to keep ahead of Alonso. If he can do that, he'll be a damned fine WDC in my eyes. If he plays it safe and runs behind Alonso, he'll still deserve the WDC but he won't have won it in grand style. Still, you take what you can get.

[ecapdeville 0]

Well, at the end it will be a thrilling race, I wish Fernando could make a strong race, just with the win in mind if he win I will be glad even if Lewis is WDC.

but the thing that I would LOVE is a huge crash between the two mclaren drivers, a boxing match when they leave the cars and seeing Raikkonen becoming WDC! Geat stuff!

[F1 FANatic 1]

this just shows how stupid todays points system is, Kimi could have 6 wins compared to Hamilton's 4 and still not be WDC.

we need to get rid of the "lets punish Schumi for being too fast" points system and get the old one back.

Funny how the points system only does what its supposed to once Schumi is gone: reward pussy footing around in 3rd instead of wining the race and pushing maybe just a bit to hard and so DNFing

[Quiet One 15]

Well, at the end it will be a thrilling race, I wish Fernando could make a strong race, just with the win in mind if he win I will be glad even if Lewis is WDC.

but the thing that I would LOVE is a huge crash between the two mclaren drivers, a boxing match when they leave the cars and seeing Raikkonen becoming WDC! Geat stuff!

You mean The McLarens, Ferraris and BMWs crashing together in a huge ball of flame, and the Renaults going forward to take a win at Interlagos, right?

[ecapdeville 0]

You mean The McLarens, Ferraris and BMWs crashing together in a huge ball of flame, and the Renaults going forward to take a win at Interlagos, right?

ahhhh....hey...

THATS A VERY GOOD IDEA!!!!!!!!

GO RENAULT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

thanks Andres!

[Max Mosley 2]

Before China I would have disputed you, but now I'm not as confident of Hammy's ability to handle the pressure. Brazil is a track that will favor the longer Ferrari so no problem if Kimi ends up ahead of the McLarens....the pressure on Hamilton will be to keep ahead of Alonso. If he can do that, he'll be a damned fine WDC in my eyes. If he plays it safe and runs behind Alonso, he'll still deserve the WDC but he won't have won it in grand style. Still, you take what you can get.

Interesting post Mike. I'm still fairly confident of Hamilton with regards to pressure. It's going to be interesting to see how it all unfolds. And I won't mind so much if he plays it safe. I think he should have played it safe in China tbh! And the longer wheelbase is another issue to consider. As Rainmaster says, the kerbs should favour Mclaren. I wonder what will be most significant.

[Oli 1]

this just shows how stupid todays points system is, Kimi could have 6 wins compared to Hamilton's 4 and still not be WDC.

we need to get rid of the "lets punish Schumi for being too fast" points system and get the old one back.

Funny how the points system only does what its supposed to once Schumi is gone: reward pussy footing around in 3rd instead of wining the race and pushing maybe just a bit to hard and so DNFing

I quite like the new points system, simply because it gives the low-end teams something realistic to aim for- 8th place is far easier than 6th. I don't think 6 to 4 is an unreasonable difference either- if you actually look at their finishes (and the number of DNFs) it seems fair, or at least fairer.

I'd favour 12 ponts for the winner, then the rest as they are. Just enough to make it worth fighting for 1st, but not enough to make the rest of the field lose hope....

[hookedon-f1 0]

Well, at the end it will be a thrilling race, I wish Fernando could make a strong race, just with the win in mind if he win I will be glad even if Lewis is WDC.

but the thing that I would LOVE is a huge crash between the two mclaren drivers, a boxing match when they leave the cars and seeing Raikkonen becoming WDC! Geat stuff!

[Karta 0]

I wont write it all again, just link the thread i made concerning my thoughts:

http://www.totalf1.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=9274

[monza gorilla 1]

You forgot scenario number 4: somebody goes to FIA with a youtube video, an mp3 or some scale model made with toothpicks and a bit of paper and proves that they all should be investigated. Britney Spears becomes the new WDC.

We all make a conga line and Russ becomes a rabbi.

That would need surgery and I'm not volunteering. Anyway, I'm already a lama in my spare time.

Vis the WDC, it's Lewis's to lose, and I think he may do just that.

[pabloh20 1]

Before China I would have disputed you, but now I'm not as confident of Hammy's ability to handle the pressure. Brazil is a track that will favor the longer Ferrari so no problem if Kimi ends up ahead of the McLarens....the pressure on Hamilton will be to keep ahead of Alonso. If he can do that, he'll be a damned fine WDC in my eyes. If he plays it safe and runs behind Alonso, he'll still deserve the WDC but he won't have won it in grand style. Still, you take what you can get.

Yep, I think that is right. Get one in the bag and then he can win another one in style, if possible.

Regarding the pressure - I think Lewis can handle it as good as anyone in F1 at the moment, which is no mean feat. The pressure wasn't really on Kimi and Nando last race, but it will be back on for the last race, maybe not quite so much for Kimi, though.