Who has a chance at the Title

[nichosnz 0]

Ron Dennis is claiming that DC is driving so well at the moment because he has no chance at the title.

[TotalF1 Jens 0]

But just think about how much of a lead Schumacher has, 43 points! JPM, RS, or DC would have to win four races in a row with four retirements by Schumacher and he still would be three points back!

As you say, eight out of 17 races have been driven. Schumacher has won six. There are nine races left. Who wants to bet that Schumacher will win four of them (less than 50% of remaining) to record 10 wins for the season, the most ever in F1.

[nichosnz 0]

Jens I am definatly not saying that it is likely MS will be beaten, but it is not impossible. Ron is talking like it is.

I did all the number crunching I could think of before posting and no-one else can take the lead until round 13, provided they win all but one of those rounds (5 races) and in the other score 4 points more than MS manages in all 5.

And that if MS repeats 2001.  In the sense of retiring from only one race, scoring out of the top two once, and finishing all others first or second, then he already has all the wins he needs.  One retirement and 8 2nd's will give him 118 points, 9 wins will give JPM or RS 117 points, DC 116.

But I stress Ron said DC (and therefore JPM and RS) have no chance, the reality is, they need a miracle, but it can be done.

[TotalF1 Jens 0]

It can, but as you say, a miracle is needed. Schumacher retired twice last year just to correct, Imola and Germany.

[nichosnz 0]

Oops, yeah sorry I complety forgot about Imola,  my mind was in another place at the time I worked out all that.  So I'm not suprised a made a small error.

[TotalF1 Jens 0]

2 retirements out of 17 races isn't bad, and consider the fact that not onace when he finished did he finish out of the points.

[nichosnz 0]

Well MS has only finished, but out of the points, twice in his F1 career.  Once (Benetton) he was 5th on the grid, but was relgated to last for the start, when he did the wrong thing by being confused about something on the formation lap (he passed, and shouldn't have).  MS still managed to rise up to 7th for the finish.  There were 26 startes in those days too not the 22 we have today.

I can't for the life of me remember the circumstances surrounding the Ferrari occasion, Jens how about you.

[TotalF1 Jens 0]

You know I have absolutely no idea. I didn't even know that only twice did he have a finish out of the points, unbelievable!

I'll go look around results from 97 and 98, around that time.

[nichosnz 0]

It is not often something stumps both of us is it?

2 finishes out of the points (122 in), 19 off the podium (105 on).  Quite impressive isn't it.

[nichosnz 0]

I've found it.

Monaco 1998, the infamous Schu/Wurz collision that set in motion the suspension failure that turned Wurz car into a dart coming out of the tunnel.

[TotalF1 Jens 0]

Wow, I can't believe I didn't remember that!

[nichosnz 0]

You do remember the incident though don't you Jens.

Martin Brundle mentioned on the ITV commentry that Sato's accident this year was similar.  I disagree, Sato came out spinning, Wurz came out (as I mentioned above) like a dart.

[TotalF1 Jens 0]

Yea I remember that one well.

[nichosnz 0]

It was pretty.... "spectacular".  To see a car traveling that fast with no wheels attached properly.